CoreWeave - The Cost of Borrowed Time? - Initiation

The 15% yield on the SUNs is eye-catching, but so is the range of outcomes when you start to stress the assumptions behind the build-out. A few million dollars per MW, a change in renewal economics or a shift in the cost of capital can make a very big difference. And with Democrats making gains in the midterms, data-centre permitting, power demand and the politics of AI infrastructure are becoming harder to ignore. To come to a view, we have calculated through four scenarios in particular, and not all of them are pretty. We may be a little early playing through a recaptable, but it informs us of the risk and dynamic between the bottom two scenarios.