Independent special situations desk Sarria held a webinar on Tuesday (7 October) assessing legal risks and opportunities for the perpetual notes. The webinar included panellists Stephen Phillips from FreiLibertas, as well as Tom Astle and Alex Kay from Hogan Lovells.

While the firm’s net leverage remains high after the US school bus sale, Mobico has strong asset coverage and “its Spanish division alone would pay off the company’s debt,” Wolfgang Felix, founder of credit research firm Sarria, told investors on a call Wednesday.

Regarding the RCF, Felix said he doesn’t think it will be drawn to pay down bonds coming due, because “that just makes no sense this early in the game.”

n a wide-ranging Mobico webinar discussion, independent special situations desk Sarria noted Spanish ALSA operations were carrying the company with the UK franchising contract model shift being a margin rather than a revenue issue. While the German operations are suffering, the public focus on Deutsche Bahn’s half year earnings could help. Ultimately, Sarria noted Mobico is a GBP 1.8bn enterprise value business, albeit with debt carrying capacity covering only 83% of senior secured debt (gross), while a sale of ALSA could cover the entire debt stack. Perpetual noteholders could ask for cash to amend and extend and SUNs may accept some leakage if it addressed the perpetual note maturity problem, Sarria stated.

“We’ve been positively surprised by the cost-cutting discipline and this improvement was not down to window-dressing,” independent special situations desk Sarria told Debtwire. “These are positive developments, but the purchasing gross money multiples need to remain high. The servicing margin is performing as forecast. Intrum is a smaller company now trying to service the same cost of debt that the bigger company couldn’t in the first place.”

“At the industry level, these solar companies face a big problem,” said Wolfgang Felix, founder of credit research firm Sarria. “The US has walked away from Paris Agreement and people are abandoning the goals. The drive to roll out new projects is waning. Meanwhile, European governments are trying to save money. All of this is having the effect of slowing demand for these products.”

“Matalan had a mountain to climb on costs over the past 18 months. This is now behind the company and freight surcharges are less of a pressure. There is a built-in tailwind for 2025 now,” independent special situations desk Sarria told Debtwire. “

Wolfgang Felix, founder and senior analyst at credit research firm Sarria “This increase in supply will reduce the price of the solar panels in Europe,” Felix said, adding that panels are made in large factories with minimum loads, which cannot just turn off production