Graanul - Has anything changed?

Following the release of Q4 numbers, we have revised our model and projections to gain a deeper understanding of Graanul’s business. We have changed our view on inventory movement and the interaction between sales volume and production levels across the year. Most of our focus remains on regulatory analysis of the wider industry. Some insight can be seen from the recent UK Government deliberations on the industry and the balance between the security of supply versus value for money in continuing biomass subsidies. These lessons can be extrapolated across Europe, which will impact the wider industry demand. The analysis of supply and demand extends to our recovery analysis. We have calculated the impact of a range of pricing and volume assumptions post FY26 and the likely financeability under these assumptions, which drives our recovery scenarios.