Graanul - No Deal to '27 - Model Update

After another (third) failed refinancing attempt by Apollo, we have re-examined Graanul in light of recent market developments. We have revisited the balance between the bonds’ carry and cash generation, the outlook for replacement volumes and pricing as legacy contracts roll off, and the implications for bondholder returns. With refinancing on hold, we focus on what the market is now pricing in and whether the changing risk/reward warrants a position.