Tullow - Postponement of Pain - Model Update

Time is running out for the Company. Following Tullow’s divestments to repay the Sub Notes and the RCF, the Senior Secured Noteholders are left to shoulder the burden. We revisit the Tullow situation, underscoring the importance of the Jubilee field to the wider Group.

Our analysis focuses on the Jubilee field, particularly in light of the numerous operational issues experienced in H2 2024 and H1 2025. We have modelled the potential impact of the upcoming drilling programme on Jubilee’s production levels, which will be critical in determining the Group’s future cash flows.

With the bonds maturing in May 2026, we assess the limited options available to the Company and its bondholders. This includes exploring potential further asset sales, evaluating the likely sale prices for contingent payments linked to previously divested assets, and examining the implications of the two outstanding tax arbitration cases. From these considerations, we draw a logical conclusion that informs our investment decision.