The new Senior Secured Debt has alleviated liquidity concerns, but does it truly strengthen creditors' positions? Building on our previous analysis of Kem One's future capital expenditure, we assess the impact of significant non-recurring add-backs in FY24. Our model challenges the company's projections, scrutinising key assumptions-some more credible than others. While the new facility provides liquidity, market uncertainty persists. We outline what this means for

investors and how we position ourselves in light of these risks.

We have finally decided to take a position in one of the bonds, following our initiation last year. Our understanding of the company is primarily based on a bottom-up analysis of its product suite, its clients and its peers, and we have built a model, updated divestitures - and played with recap tables last year and in January already. So what has provided the impetus was really a more technical review of its covenants, the game theory, the consequences for various constituents and the timing of it all.

After the Q4 results, we updated our model to extend forecasts to FY28 and introduced a DCF,| which supports our original thesis. We've factored in the revenue contribution from AMS Osram's

FY24 contract wins, balancing this against our continued expectation of a weaker H1 versus H2 in 2025. While management's outlook deviates considerably from our analysis, this additional work

has given us the confidence to increase our existing position in AMS Osram.

We will be holding The Very Group Live Discussion on Wednesday, 19th March at 2 PM UK | 10

AM EST.

For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk. We have initiated coverage on The Very Group, analysing its relative position within the UK retail market. As part of our work, we have separated the retail arm from the finance arm, allowing us to model the various influences that impact the individual segments of the business. Mindful of the wider Holding Company structure, and associated indebtedness at the different levels, we have assessed the impact these upcoming maturities will have on The Very Group. Combining all these aspects has enabled us to take a firm view on the Company and its outstanding bonds.

We have analysed the restructuring proposals from the SSN and SUN groups at Ardagh Group to assess the impact on our current investment position. We consider which of the two proposals will succeed and how that will alter the valuation for the SSN and SUN holders. Part of our analysis focused on the likely choice of jurisdiction and the impact on how the restructuring will be put into effect.

We have significantly updated our model and analysis of this name as the bonds' call protection heads for its final step-down. We are evaluating the refinancing scenario with an eye on two metrics in particular, which we have made the focus of this update, and we anticipate their likely trends going forward. Perhaps our view of the name has remained largely intact, but it rests on a solid foundation.

We look at the recent corporate finance activities at SBB to identify where we might allocate capital in the debt stack.SBB has worked hard to generate cash for maturities and to alter the perception of how much value there is in the business. We assess SBB's success in covering its near-term maturities, where the choke points for liquidity are, and what levers the company has to bolster liquidity.

Before that background, we evaluate the part disposals in the subsidiaries and

how this will impact the holding company's ability to fund itself.

We have played through recap scenarios, A&Es and LMEs to find an angle for investors in the SSNs as the RCF is becoming current. To support the discussion, we have rolled forward our model and have made adjustments to our valuation of the company, taking into account DCF and trading comparables, as well as certain exit scenarios. As a result, we are staying our course with no change to our strategy since last quarter.

We build the latest news about shareholder/creditor engagement into our modelling to assess how this should advise our positioning in this name. We analyse the various options, how each would impact recoveries for creditors, and identify the best outcome for investors. We also investigate how the shareholders may be incentivised to participate and how this could impact recoveries.

We went long in our mock portfolio Eutelsat 29s on Monday at 86c/€, only to see them rocket towards par the next morning and the day after - fantastic, but too late for you all. Our reasoning - as usuall - fundamental | based on bottom-up separate models by constellation, legal considerations and the like. The possibility of defence and other government contracts has been a feature for months, but did not feature urgently in our reasoning. Still, the name offers a lot of angles and we have them explored all within a coherent analysis and investment memo.

We will be holding a VMEDO2 Live Discussion+Q&A on Thu, 6 March at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST.

For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

We assess the impact of the capex spend on debt and how quickly VMO2 is building out Fibre- to-the-Pavement. We also delve into the strategy of splitting away network assets from customers and how this will impact the debt stack. Finally, we overlay how competition in fixed and mobile services is moving and the long-term impact on VMO2. We identify the instruments in the capital structure, where we have an interest and the yields we are seeking.

There are many more moving parts to Eutelsat than creditors have signed up for: Video, Government, OneWeb, Delays, Ground Infrastructure, Follow-on Investments, IRIS2 and many more. We have, therefore, created separate models for the RG and OneWeb and value these separately. We have costed the Follow-on and have accounted for the EQT deal and the funding for IRIS2. The key to our trade, however, lies in the structure and the extent to which this becomes a risk under various scenarios.

We will be holding a Eutelsat Live Discussion+Q&A on Wed, 5 March at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST.

For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

Ever since we changed our view on Emeria last year, we have been looking forward to approx. this time to revisit the name. Taking into account recent transactions, macro data and our own forecasts of the company's cash flows at this time, we have committed to a position that has us take more risk than we first thought we would.

Post the investor meetings last week, we have added our thoughts to the potential refinancing debate.

We have re-examined the potential for a refinancing deal after the Investor presentations led by the Company this month. The changing dynamics in the industry, specifically the level of subsidies that are on offer to energy providers has led us to change our expectations, which are further shaped by the UK government's Heads of Terms agreement with Drax, a major customer of Graanul. Separately to regulatory concerns, we calculate the impact of the planned increase in supply from new wood pellet manufacturing versus the overall potential growth in demand.

We analyse the strategy at Birkenstock to assess the impact of investment in manufacturing and retail capacity and the effect on revenue and margins. We look at external factors around exporting to key markets and the potential impact on volumes and pricing. We assess the capital structure and how it may evolve in the medium term.

In a year in which no EU member has handed in their NDCs to the Paris Accord, anything to do with renewables must wobble. Even more so when factoring in the back-and-forth of the Spanish windfall tax on energy. We have found our exploration of the company and the distribution market very interesting and have woven that understanding into a view that we will be pursuing with a strategy this year. But first, we have to wait for one or two events.

We will be holding an Amara Zero Live Discussion on Tuesday, 25th February at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST.

For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

Q4 and FY24 numbers were broadly in line with our model, and the revised management guidance reiterated our assumptions post-Q3 results. Therefore, we have made limited changes to our projections, apart from adapting to the change in CAPEX guidance. Although it doesn't impact our FY25 projections, our additional work on AMS Osram's new design wins has led us to change our assumptions beyond FY26. There remains some discrepancy between our expectations and management's guidance on the timing of these design wins, which we continue to flesh out.

After the refinance and disposal of significant business, we revisit our investment view on Boparan. Our modelling has been adjusted to better reflect the pricing dynamic with customers. We look at the impact of disposals on debt and EBITDA margins and how this will develop over the next 12 months. We also analyse how increasing costs in calendar 2025 may impact our assessment in the future.

We have re-adjusted our model in light of the union agreement and examined the potential for the business to deleverage going forward. The recent rally in Cerba bonds has allowed us to re-examine the trading opportunities available in Cerba bonds. We have therefore taken more than one position across the capital structure, backed by our analysis of tariff levels versus volume expectations for FY25. Our positioning is conscious of the shareholder's motivation and the options available to them to drive equity value.

In our initiation on the pro forma merged entity of SES and Intelsat, we are analysing the strategic dynamics for operators along the concept of CoPro/CoP and separation, as well as downstream integration and migration, to assess how the space sector may evolve over the next few years. Against this backdrop, we assess the attractiveness of the bonds against a range of macro factors.

We will be holding a SES | Intelsat Live Discussion on Wednesday, 12 February at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST.

For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.