Consolidated Energy - comment
Bonds have softened recently, though without any notable new developments. Two minor news items may be affecting sentiment, but neither is new information.
US tariffs on UAN fertiliser imports were confirmed at 15% in August. If we assume that Consolidate has to swallow 100% of the tariff, this would imply a reduction in EBITDA contribution per bag from USD40 to USD28. Not all production goes to the US (the company declines to confirm how much does), so the actual impact will be less. This was discussed on the Q1 and Q2 investor call, so the news is already in the market.
The large-scale ammonia plant being built by Woodside Energy, due to start in Q4 2025, will not produce UAN fertiliser.