Thames Water - comment

First, the difference is only £30m more than we had modelled (and we flagged that the settlement may be higher, because in the scheme of things it's a drop in the ocean). But 6c/€ is a good outcome for the Bs (note that this is not a cash payment today, but a promise, contingent upon implementation). The timing is not entirely coincidental. The negotiation is at a point where the As will want to shorten their frontlines, get fresh cash organised and concentrate on the government. The right to participate in fresh cash for new equity is an elegant solution, although we are still missing the details. In turn, making the deal contingent on Ofwat launching its consultation by the end of the year binds the regulator and forces the discussion. 

Second, the Bs have agreed to an extension of the stable platform period (expires March 2027), the next urgent agenda item, as RP2 probably can't be implemented before then. This would buy another runway increment, but the pattern here is exactly what we described: each extension shifts value to the fresh-cash providers (Class A and Super Senior), who continue to accumulate economic seniority with each consent cycle.