Net positive news for bondholders: The Amodio brothers have increased their shareholding in OHLA to approximately 29% following the disposal of a 7.22% stake by Mexican investor Andrés Holzer, with J.P. Morgan running an accelerated bookbuilding to place approximately 6% of OHLA's share capital in the market. The consolidation of ownership in the hands of the Amodio family increases their controlling influence over the company's strategic direction.

The question is what the new ownership structure implies for the convertible decision, which remains the central risk for us. We have been sceptical that the remaining €49m gets raised, and a EUR 50m convertible at EUR 0.25 would dilute the family from 26% to 18%, which we expected them to resist. At 29%, the dilution calculus is marginally worse for the family, which if anything reinforces our scepticism on the convertible path and keeps the exchange proportion risk at the higher end.