The restructuring market is somewhat becalmed. Is this quiet a signal that trouble is brewing? In the European credit markets of mid-2026, there are reasons to believe the answer is yes — even if headline default rates remain subdued.
This engineered calmness masks deepening structural stresses. Like the deceptive lull in a war film when the birds stop singing — the only indicator that something is amiss — underlying tensions are building. Distressed and special situations funds have increasingly morphed into large AUM aggregators in private credit. Intense competition for assets has driven rich entry prices, return compression, and — in many cases — aggressive Liability Management Exercises (LMEs) as managers seek to protect returns on their high cost basis.
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