Unfortunately, due to a lack of available borrow, we have exited our short position in Kem One. When we took our short position, borrow was available, but we are closing now to reflect the reality of the market. We have updated our model and further expanded on our analysis of what the next steps will be for the Company and bondholders.

We have revisited our Rekeep model and delved further into the segmental data that Rekeep provides. This enables us to make some additional observations, including the differences between the international Facility Management business and the traditional/Italian segment. The numbers are slightly complicated because of the subdivision of the energy segment, which has just commenced. Despite this, the data provides additional insight into the Rekeep business, further supporting our investment decision.

Commercial activity and positive cash flow are the perennial focus for Rekeep investors. We concur, but we find additional moving parts that further influence our investment decision.

We are maintaining our position in Cerba following the publication of the Q2 numbers. We have updated and refined our forecasts for the coming 18 months.  With a restructuring imminent, we have expanded on our previous liquidity scenarios, examining the options available to the Company over the coming quarters.

With the upcoming debt maturities now well understood by the market, we have revisited the full range of options available to all stakeholders. Building on our earlier analysis, we continue to assess scenarios that include both an equity injection and a partial write-off of existing debt as possible routes to achieving an extension of Transcom’s maturity profile. That said, the most recent set of financial results, which were notably below expectations, offer little support to the Company’s refinancing ambitions. In the aftermath of the second quarter results, we have re-examined the probability of each refinancing scenario materialising, which in turn has led us to reconsider our previous investment view.

When you have the full analysis already at your fingertips, you can quickly make adjustments and come to a coherent understanding of - and view on an evolving situation. That’s what we’ve done to reflect the shift in direction of the Klöckner Pentaplast negotiation, having (shadow) traded out of the name only a month ago. We have a conference call booked to discuss the opportunity now for Tuesday at 3 pm UK time.

We will be holding Klöckner Pentaplast Live Discussion on Tuesday, 2nd September at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST. For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

As the company is nearing an A&E, we are looking beyond to estimate the trading value of the new instruments and what the package should be worth. Playing around with our recap table, we have considered a variety of options, which has provided us with a strategy we are waiting to implement, if the market differs.

As a B- candidate with deteriorating operations, House of HR was one of the names you requested. We have analysed the fundamentals at work in each of its divisions and, based on our view of their development going forward, have reached a firm conclusion on the trajectory of this company and its bonds. While the resulting idea is not for our shadow book right now, it’s high conviction anyway, and we know that some of you will put it on.

We will be holding House of HR Live Discussion on Wednesday, 3rd September at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST. For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

Following the refinancing, we assess the yield on these bonds on an absolute and relative basis. As ever, our analysis is grounded in a deep fundamental review of its operations, compiled in a forward-looking model and brought to a holistic view of the business. Our conclusion is, on the one hand, emblematic of the shadow book we run, but on the other hand, it addresses a new set of investment considerations.

So 18 months after the 18 month plan that underscored the refinancing, what has materialised? What have we learned about the market and, therefore, Stonegate’s options going forward? We have updated our model, not far from projections and have come to a conclusion on the trajectory of the bonds from here.

As SFR is going through the courts, our attention returns to Altice International. Is the French deal a blueprint for its smaller sibling, or what would be the right structure? We have updated our model and drivers and have been playing with a recapitalisation model to gauge the options available to all parties. We have thereby gained a clearer idea of the scale of each deal component and, relative to current market prices, have come to a conclusion on our position in the name.

Based on our fundamental analysis, we focus on two distinct factors in the Company’s projections. Both of these factors are fundamental to future cash flow, which is a pertinent topic for Atos. Our view differs considerably from that shared by the Company, and we maintain our opinion on the name itself, as well as the relative value between the various layers of the capital structure.

We were very pleased with the strong attendance at our latest Live Discussion – thank you for joining us! It was great to see your lively engagement throughout the session. As you are aware, we are bullish on Mobico over the coming 12 Months. We have discussed a variety of fundamental reasons, including significant asset cover - be it from buses or going by subsidiary (ALSA), but the most striking statistic to us is the top-down view of the scale of the task. Mobico will have €1 of cash for every €2.5 it'll want to reschedule. That’s a lot of flexibility.

We evaluate the restructuring plan from Accentro, its likelihood of success and how this should impact our investment stance. After gauging the probability of implementing the plan, we calculate the value of the various components of the restructured debt and their contribution to SUN's recoveries. Executing the plan will have challenges, so we consider those potential barriers and their impact on returns.

We analyse the restructuring proposal from Ardagh to assess whether a consensual or court process will be needed; what the impact on recoveries is; where the instruments should trade; and how that impacts our investment stance. Having just closed a very successful trade in the Ardagh cap stack recently, we want to grab new opportunities arising from the restructuring.

We’ve heard you. Following conversations with a number of you, and a new recap table we’ve built, we have decided to adjust our positioning in the name. Our advantage is your benefit. Through holding such multilateral discussions with other buy-siders, the desk can see a name from more than one angle and adjust accordingly. Our fundamental outlook, model and our net risk remain the same.

We will be holding Mobico Live Discussion on Wednesday, 6th August at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST. For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

Even though fundamentally this is only an incremental update - beyond the admirable cost control, we find few incremental insights in the Q2 reporting - this is a major update financially. Following the conclusion of the restructuring, even if we are still waiting for the tender, we have plugged in the new capital structure and have replaced the legal section entirely. The new model we introduced a month ago has worked well and is updated. Any positioning, however, has to wait until the dust settles.

Having recently tumbled, the company’s shares and bonds offer an interesting dynamic for us, despite their high BB- rating. Based on our fundamental work by division, we have come out with a strong opinion on the name and, accordingly, are positioning ourselves in more than one security.

We will be holding Mobico Live Discussion on Wednesday, 6th August at 3 PM UK | 10 AM EST. For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.

Ardagh is on the cusp of announcing its restructuring, so we revisit our position in the SUNs. We calculate fair value for the SUNs and assess how the payments to Ardagh Group shareholders could impact this estimate. We then delve into the components of the eventual recovery for SUN's holders, how these valuations may change, and what the immediate pricing impact of the restructuring will be.

As previously noted, there has been a divergence between the credit and equity outlook, presenting several compelling trading opportunities. In light of the Company’s recent private placements, we believe this is an appropriate time to reassess our positioning. Building on our prior cash flow analysis, we are now placing greater emphasis on the expected timing of asset sales and upcoming refinancing events. Taken together, these factors support an adjustment to our position ahead of the Q2 earnings release.

Having assessed the credit metrics and the pricing of our position in the CPI Perpetual securities, we have taken profit of what has been a 37% trade. Going forward, our analysis builds on the current valuation environment and the maturity profile of CPI, while also considering how management strategy may impact risk and return.