We model the potential implications of an adverse outcome in the Palermo investigation, drawing parallels with the FM4 case and isolating the strategic importance of the Laundry & Sterilisation division within the broader Rekeep Group. Our analysis incorporates a range of possible fines and sanctions, assessing their effect on investor sentiment, cashflow and long-term profitability. Following the release of Q3 results, we updated our model, which continues to reinforce our original investment thesis.
The PPI AS transaction provides a liquidity boost for SBB, and we assess how this disposal of the community assets should advise our investment stance on the company, where this transaction leaves SBB as an operational entity and how the valuation of its holdings stacks up against its debt. Our analysis addresses how post-transaction liquidity will be used to deal with maturities and how much time SBB has before further cash may be needed.
While operational trends continue to improve, our analysis remains centred on the structural limitations inherent in Isabel Marant’s capital and documentation framework. We highlight the potential vulnerabilities embedded in the bond documentation and model projected cash flows ahead of a potential refinancing. The core of our investment debate lies in balancing these documentation-related risks against the Company’s operational momentum, both of which shape our updated forecasts and valuation approach.
Matalan is again at the same crossroads; cash needs to go in, and maturities are coming up. But this time it’s different. This time, Matalan is approaching from another angle. So how will the new facility affect the fortunes of the SSNs and, beyond that, what is the investment case in the high 60s? Fundamentals have been close to model and after updating the same and running scenarios on the refinancing, we conclude on the opportunity and the key drivers surrounding it over the coming two years.
We continue to highlight the growing divergence between equity and credit perspectives, but the question now is whether credit investors can afford to overlook the latest moves in the equity market. Our analysis explores the Company’s strategic pathways and assesses the feasibility of a 2027 refinancing, examining how each option could reshape trading levels across both equity and credit. With refreshed forecasts for FY26 and FY27, we take a close look at how potential asset divestments may influence revenue trajectories and future cash flow, offering a clear view of the opportunities and risks ahead.
The restructuring transaction is close to what we had expected, except the distribution of the equity. Is it really so unattractive? From the recent disclosures in the Texas filings, we have reverse-engineered what must have happened over the past year and use that as a basis for our model to put an up-to-date perspective on the recapitalisation. The result is clear-cut.
Following the Q3 results, we have reassessed our positioning within the Cerba capital structure. Building on our extensive prior analysis, we have evaluated the impact of the additional liquidity on the range of options available to the Company. We also consider the implications for both senior and subordinated bondholders arising from the new shareholder cash injection, which ranks pari passu with the Senior Secured debt.
While the additional liquidity does not change our fundamental view of the credit, the evolving composition of the holder base has prompted us to reconsider our position.
Having (notionally) positioned ourselves twice on this name this year, we are currently watching from the sidelines. Of course, the RCF is fully drawn and bonuses are paid in time for the showdown, but Q325 contained some interesting operating results, which we think warrant slightly adjusting our forecast. The likely timing of the situation has also changed a bit. Combined with our core fundamental analysis, it's not enough to alter our view, but we take note.
We assess the current trading of Viridien and the pricing of its SSNs to update our investment stance on the company. We analyse the current performance of the business and have updated our projections to account for how we expect E&P budgets to evolve in light of oil prices.
Sometimes the key lies hidden in the details. A small figure starts moving, altering an entire investment thesis. Having observed such a move, we have set out to do more work on it and have played around with our forecast. As a result, we have made some changes, but for now we’ll be staying our course, keeping in mind certain short-term catalysts.
We have changed our investment stance on Iceland following the publication of Q2 financials. Considering the development of store count and related leverage, as well as price / volume growth vs. labour cost, we compare our projections with company guidance. With one eye on the next refinancing, we have come to a decision and have altered our positioning.
Paper and Packaging companies provide the HY and distressed community with wonderful/dreadful volatility. Getting it the right way round is the challenge. We have grossed up the company’s divisions historically to better gauge the organic trajectory each division is on and use that to extrapolate through this cycle. As a result we arrive with a wide gap between various valuation techniques, but pick a clear favourite. On that basis we have formulated a strategy that we will be looking to (notionally) execute over the next six months.
Sarria | Fedrigoni - Client Call Wed, 12 November, 3 pm UK time | 10 am EST. For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.
After the publication of the Boparan FYE 2025 results, we look at where and why company performance has varied from our forecasts since the November 2024 refinance, and we have built that into an update of our model and how this should advise our investment stance. Our analysis also addresses the pricing environment, the investment plans of management and how our current thinking may be reviewed in the future.
Flora is a familiar credit for us, having previously achieved a highly successful outcome on the prior subordinated bonds. Following our detailed work last month, we have updated our analysis to incorporate the Q3 results, comparing actual performance against our forecasts and making minor adjustments to our forward projections accordingly. Many of the key risks we previously identified persist, most notably the ongoing lack of meaningful cash deleveraging. We also remain mindful that the revised capital structure introduces several constraints, including a change in governing law. Balancing these structural considerations against our updated cash flow and deleveraging projections, we have reached an investment decision encompassing the full capital structure.
We have initiated coverage of the Engineering group; our analysis reviews the performance of the various divisions of the company and delves into the potential future performance in each to best advise our investment stance.
In forming our investment stance, we weigh various components of the cash flow along the most significant levers to drive a DCF valuation and debt coverage for the SSNs before any potential support from shareholders.
Sarria | Engineering Group - Client Call Wed, 5 November, 3 pm UK time | 10 am EST. For more information, please contact info@sarria.co.uk.
The Q3 results were better than expected, prompting us to re-evaluate our investment decision. We have re-examined the potential case for refinancing, given the upcoming maturities. Building on our previous analysis of the options available to all stakeholders, we consider the potential for an equity injection, a partial debt write-off, and an amend-and-extend transaction.
While the stronger Q3 results provide a more supportive backdrop for extending maturities, the industry outlook remains uncertain as investors continue to assess the impact of AI on Transcom’s revenue stream.
Overall, the Q3 performance is positive, though its impact is marginal. Having modelled the various refinancing scenarios, we conclude that, when combined, these factors support maintaining our current investment decision.
Time is running out for the Company. Following Tullow’s divestments to repay the Sub Notes and the RCF, the Senior Secured Noteholders are left to shoulder the burden. We revisit the Tullow situation, underscoring the importance of the Jubilee field to the wider Group.
Our analysis focuses on the Jubilee field, particularly in light of the numerous operational issues experienced in H2 2024 and H1 2025. We have modelled the potential impact of the upcoming drilling programme on Jubilee’s production levels, which will be critical in determining the Group’s future cash flows.
With the bonds maturing in May 2026, we assess the limited options available to the Company and its bondholders. This includes exploring potential further asset sales, evaluating the likely sale prices for contingent payments linked to previously divested assets, and examining the implications of the two outstanding tax arbitration cases. From these considerations, we draw a logical conclusion that informs our investment decision.
The currently rumoured LME seems only the second of three rounds. We have calculated through what we expect to be an LME followed by a UK RP and the results speak for themselves. We have done this on the basis of an updated model and one very sensible guidance management gave on the Q225 call that marks a far departure from the operating status quo.
We have assessed the value of the various parts of the Ardagh Cap stack and how this should advise our investment stance. Our analysis values each of the three major components of the group, and how they will contribute to creditor recoveries; we also build in the opportunity for exit and how this impacts valuation.
Flora/Upfield is a familiar story following a highly successful outcome on the previous sub bonds. This time around, we’re taking a fresh look at the new issue and finding some mixed ingredients. The revised structure comes with notable limitations, not least a shift in governing law, and many of the risks and weaknesses we flagged last time remain, while management continues to champion the growth narrative around cheeses and creams. We’ve weighed that optimism against the practicalities of timing and the likely contours of KKR’s eventual exit.