Ardagh Glass - comment

The Ardagh Group is moving beyond the restructuring story it has been for two years. AMP stock is up on the day, which is good news for former SUN holders. The glass business continues to struggle, but we still see it as covering the SSNs. Volumes in 2026 are expected to be at best flat in Europe, +3% in Africa and flat in NA. Notwithstanding this, Ardagh Glass guidance is for $700m of EBITDA (slightly up from 2025) plus the $200m in Dividends from AMP. The high-level guidance from the company suggests that it will see cUSD100m in cash outflows in 2025, but this is comfortably covered by >USD900m in cash. Management also indicated that Capex will rise in the medium term as the company catches up on maintenance.