Biogroup - comment

BioGroup is holding a Capital Markets Day in Paris today and in London tomorrow. We do not expect to make any material changes to our model following the publication of the Capital Markets Day presentation. Our forecasts assume EBITDA of €438m for FY25, compared with company guidance of €430m. Given management’s expectation of a further €40m of cost savings in FY26, our €470m EBITDA assumption for FY26 remains reasonable.

The presentation, now available on the company’s website, provides headline financial figures for FY25 alongside an outlook for 2026. Revenue is expected to increase by 2% to €1.6bn, driving reported EBITDA of €430m, up 2.8% year-on-year. This growth is largely driven by the consolidation of Analiza; on an underlying basis, excluding this acquisition, revenues decline by €35m, and EBITDA is flat versus the prior year. Reported leverage is 6.4x based on reported EBITDA.

A key concern remains the company’s continued reliance on an adjusted metric, referred to as “LTM Leverageable EBITDA”, which is €66m higher than reported EBITDA. This adjustment reflects initiatives and cost savings that have yet to be implemented. Management expects the transformation plan to deliver the full €66m of incremental EBITDA over 2026–27, with €40m targeted by December 2026.

BNP Paribas and J.P. Morgan are coordinating and arranging the Capital Markets Day meetings.