Cerba - comment

Lawyers and financial advisers are already sharpening their pencils ahead of a restructuring proposal at Cerba. Anyone familiar with our analysis will recognise that this moment has been approaching, and the latest rumour, €400m of equity from EQT alongside a 25% senior debt write-off, largely aligns with our prior expectations. The transaction does not address a genuine liquidity need; instead, it appears designed to facilitate EQT’s re-entry into the capital structure. We had previously argued that senior creditors should take full ownership of the equity rather than allow EQT back into the deal, but that outcome would have required a default, which is unlikely before 2028 at the earliest.

While no party has confirmed these terms, discussions remain ongoing.