Ineos Quattro - comment

We have commenced our work on Ineos Quattro and intend to publish our views following the release of its third quarter results on 7 November.

Ineos Quattro held a 2-hour conference call yesterday, which can be summarised as follows: no visibility into future demand; lower prices driven by increased competition/dumping (this time from the far east rather than the US); and high energy costs in Europe hindering European producers. 

Ineos Quattro is proceeding with the rationalisation of its production facilities, which includes the closure of certain plants, further reductions in headcount, and the implementation of a broader cost reduction programme. In an effort to conserve cash, the company is also reducing its capital expenditure plans.

The outlook for the fourth quarter remains weak, consistent with seasonal trends, as this period is typically the lowest of the year. Management sought to provide a degree of optimism, suggesting that the industry may now be at the bottom of the cycle, with FY26 expected to represent a period of transition. Nevertheless, they acknowledged that the recovery at Ineos Quattro is likely to take longer than that of the wider Ineos Group.