INEOS Group - comment

Results ahead of our expectations and a broadly positive tone should support further strength in the bonds, reaffirming recent price gains. However, the release provided no update on the Project One facility, which remains a key consideration for INEOS’ medium-term leverage and cash flow profile.

INEOS Group reported Q1 2026 EBITDA of €421m, broadly flat year-on-year (€416m) and well above Q4 (€212m), which included a €60m impact from the Lavera turnaround. North America remained strong, benefiting from a clear cost advantage and robust export demand. Europe stabilised with improving margins, while Asia remained soft, although trading improved through March, with management expecting momentum to continue into Q2–Q3.

O&P Europe delivered strong year-on-year growth, O&P North America declined against a tough comparator, and Chemical Intermediates edged lower amid mixed demand but with a stronger exit rate.

Net debt stood at c. €12.3bn (leverage 6.8x excluding project facilities), which remains elevated, though the group continues to focus on cash control and maintaining refinancing flexibility.

INEOS Group is due to release full Q1 results and host a conference call on Tuesday, 28 April 2026.