Ineos Group - comment

Ineos Group released preliminary Q4 numbers and hosted a two-hour conference call yesterday. Management offered little additional visibility on a near-term operational recovery, while reiterating that Project One will be transformational for the Group.

Project One also generated some confusion around commissioning timing. We, along with others, had expected a start-up in early 2027, while management maintains that it has consistently guided to mid-2027. Regardless of the precise timing, the long-term sustainability of the Ineos Group now hinges on the successful commissioning and ramp-up of the Antwerp facility.

Q4 EBITDA reached €212m, representing a €140m decline versus Q4 2024. Planned turnarounds at Lavéra, Mobile and Pasadena accounted for approximately €80m of the decline. North America Olefins & Polymers remains relatively resilient, particularly when compared with Europe’s weak demand environment and structurally higher cost base. Performance in Chemical Intermediates halved year-on-year, driven by softer demand across both Asia and Europe.