Mobico - comment

Revenue growth is slower than anticipated - primarily due to Spanish Long-haul growth of a mere 4%, where the segment benefited from a Multi-Vouture scheme last year. The lower end of EBITDA guidance was already base-case, but maintaining that suggests tighter cost control than we have modelled. The announcement of KPMG as new auditor comes as a relief, although we are concerned that the delay in accounting period might have more to do with the timing of when Mobico have to top up their provision for the ongoing trouble in Germany. On our math, the balance of the provision would shrink to approx. €35m by December, and any auditor would ask it be reset to cover at least a year. Our question on the subject was withheld from discussion on the call. The decision on paying the Perps’ coupon was deferred to the end of February.