SBB Norden - comment

Q3 25 results were out on 7 November. Stable valuations and rent increases (6.6% YTD) are positive, but do not alter the fact that SBB is nowhere near being able to access the bond markets. SBB needs a major rise in valuations to make its community assets monetizable and to make its stake in the residential business more valuable. Neither seems likely in the short term, so kicking the can down the road is the strategy. Alternative debt costs exceed the rental yield, so are not sustainable. We expect asset sales or private loans (like the MS or Castlelake facilities) to finance the SEK6bn dues in Aug/Sep 2026. However, SBB will need to repeat the trick in Q3 2027 with SEK 8bn due.