Matalan - Maturities and Pivot - Model Update

Please find our updated model on Matalan here.

Any name with any risk attached that is rearing its head in this market will trade down. Following their Q2 Call in October, Matalan bonds are

Wolfgang Felix28 November 2025MATALAN

Matalan - comment

LTM EBITDA of £70m is now significantly ahead of our projections of £60m at the start of the year. Once adjusting for the 14th week, Q225 itself

Wolfgang Felix22 October 2025MATALAN

Matalan - comment

When announcing Asda’s new drive to become Britain’s largest apparel retailer, it is worth bearing in mind George’s proximity to

Wolfgang Felix1 July 2025MATALAN

Matalan - comment

Q4 saw lower revenue than we had modelled, but at even better margin, which is consistent with management’s strategy. The rea

Wolfgang Felix18 June 2025MATALAN

Matalan - The bet

Please find our substantially updated analysis of Matalan here.

The bet with Matalan is mean reversion. If it happens within three years, then the bonds return 23%. But we write “happens”, because it requires the

Buy SideWolfgang Felix28 April 2025MATALAN

Matalan - comment

A group of its main shareholders consisting of Invesco, Tresidor, Man Group and Napier Park is injecting an incremental £25m fungible with the existing

Sell SideWolfgang Felix11 April 2025MATALAN

Matalan - comment

As the company is negotiating the A&E, it is not surprising to see some departures from the board. Matalan is looking for a new CEO following Jo

Wolfgang Felix28 January 2025MATALAN

Matalan - comment

Back in October, the guidance to £60m EBITDA for the year appeared very aggressive to us and we asked management on the subject. However, Matalan

Wolfgang Felix22 January 2025MATALAN

Matalan - Will they make it? - Positioning

Please find our updated model here.

Operating momentum has returned to Matalan with a strong performance in September (back-to-school) and October. Despite H1 weakness of £20m in

Glenn Zahn15 November 2024MATALAN

Matalan - comment

The company issued a very bullish outlook for the rest of the year, driven apparently by very strong trading in Q3 so far. We frankly struggle with the

Wolfgang Felix18 October 2024MATALAN

Matalan - comment

Ouch, those sales figures are low. But on the flip side, management have held up margins and markdowns, so that EBITDA is pretty much on

Wolfgang Felix17 October 2024MATALAN

Matalan - comment

Yesterday, Matalan announced that Jo Whitfield, the CEO, is leaving the Company. Over the past few months, we have become increasingly

Wolfgang Felix8 October 2024MATALAN

Matalan - That was it - Positioning

Please find our updated analysis of Matalan here.

As flagged following last week’s call we have been disappointed by the results and are concerned about the business over the coming year. There have been warning signs

Wolfgang Felix2 July 2024MATALAN

Matalan - Not the usual pattern

Please find our unchanged analysis of Matalan here.

Matalan follows up its disappointing Q4 with a more disappointing Q1, where the cost position was even a little better than forecast, but revenues again fell short of our forecast,

Wolfgang Felix25 June 2024MATALAN

Matalan - Swinging

Please find our updated model for Matalan here.

2024/25 will be a challenging year. The company is facing a mountain of cost increases it has to overcome. On top of that, management are so bold as

Wolfgang Felix16 February 2024MATALAN

Matalan - comment

Matalan reported a strong Q324 today - £5m better EBITDA than we had projected. More importantly, we had expected the company to kitchen sink Q4 with

Wolfgang Felix19 January 2024MATALAN

Matalan - comment

We have been covering this name for a very long time, long before we added videos to our platform. So to bring the name in line with

Wolfgang Felix28 November 2023MATALAN

Matalan - Two Seasons

Please find our updated analysis of Matalan here.

Fundamentally, Matalan maintains its steady position in UK apparel retail, neither growing nor shrinking over the past 20 years, and gained market share during the pandemic as competitors exited. The low-price sector remains insulated from online

Wolfgang Felix17 November 2023MATALAN

UK Retail - comment

October inflation has come down to 4.6% spilling water on Sunak’s mills. The move is not entirely unexpected, but nonetheless positive for

Wolfgang Felix15 November 2023UK RETAIL, MORRISONS, ICELAND, OCADO, MATALAN

Matalan - comment

The retailer had a strong underlying quarter. Volumes were down but planned for, such that inventory is at -16% YoY. Average sales price was up 16% in return, yielding

Wolfgang Felix19 October 2023MATALAN