Tele Columbus - comment

The 2025 FY results are in line with our forecasts, which we believe were lower than market expectations. As a result, the bonds will be a little softer today, but not much. Looking ahead, the Co-op agreement with bondholders and the Q1 numbers coming out on 29th May mean that the Q4 numbers will soon be superseded. However, Tele Columbus’ plan to roll out fibre to retain and win new customers is clearly not yielding the desired results. Meanwhile, discussions with creditors about a possible restructure are ongoing, but we are unlikely to hear much until after the Q1 results next week. In the meantime, we are also in the process of updating our analysis and forecasts.

Revenue of €426m was 4% below, while reported EBITDA was in line at €139m, reflecting lower restructuring costs and mix (more internet); consequently, this flowed through to OCF of €122m (€124m forecast). Additionally, capex was €30m below our expectations (as the company slowed its rollout), resulting in year-end cash on hand of €72m vs our expectation of €36m. In terms of operating figures, TV RGUs were 9% below our forecast at 1.51m, which was largely due to Premium TV RGUs being 100k lower than expected (0.58m). By contrast, Internet and Telephony RGUs were in line at 1.31m. Although the infrastructure is being rolled out, customers are not biting.