Ubisoft - comment

Following news of the record launch of Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced, the company failed to raise guidance, but the outlook is far stronger than we had feared only months ago.

Net bookings of €256m came in slightly above the company's own €250m guide and c.€40m ahead of the shape our H1 forecast implied. The overperformance was carried almost entirely by Invincible: Guarding the Globe, a two-year-old mobile title benefiting from the March TV-series drop and a new in-game character. Digital was down 17.6% and back-catalogue down 15%, both dragged by the Assassin's Creed Shadows comp, released on 20 March 2025 and monetised heavily in Q125 already. Resynced launched on 9 July (Q226) with 3.5m copies sold-in in two weeks, which management says has already exceeded the annual expectation for the title. Considering the good Q126 performance and the stellar launch in Q2, we'd have expected management to raise guidance; Rayman Legends Retold follows on 1 October and Just Dance Decades of Hits on 13 October. But management could not yet be drawn; perhaps it’s wise. One swallow not a spring make...

The Q2 26/27 guidance is €370m, which points to significantly better performance than what we modelled. Notwithstanding the unchanged guidance, we will have to adjust the model upwards, which suits our position. Management reiterated that the '28s would be met with cash on hand and that it continued to pursue refinancing opportunities, which may be forthcoming if the '27s are receiving ID requests. We remain long the 27s.