Europcar - bond returns

Please refer to our updated analysis of Europcar here.

Fleet model, CFs, recap and legal remain unchanged, but we have added a more concrete NPV and IRR on the current bonds / future equity.

By the company’s estimation, the

Wolfgang Felix16 December 2020EUROPCAR

Naviera Armas - soon

Please refer to our updated analysis here.

It’s taken some time, but the update on Naviera Armas is finally here. The situation is fluid and intense negotiations are underway to inject fresh cash before year-end.

Fundamentally,

Wolfgang Felix15 December 2020NAVIERA

Europcar - Très Accélérée

A court ruling is expected by mid-January (with at most one-month extension), which is sooner / better than we had expected. Note that we suffer from unevenly distributed information regarding certain documents that were available on

Wolfgang Felix15 December 2020EUROPCAR

CGG – update and new position following the Q3 20 results

Please find our analysis updated for the Q3 20 results and call here.

We have updated our forecasts, to take into account the more positive message from both CGG and PGS, and in the context of a recovering picture for both 2021 early leads and

Juliano Torii14 December 2020CGG

Pro-Gest - We'll miss you

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

As good as it was, we are nearing the end of our investment thesis. Pro-Gest has been one of the rare fundamental trades this year that was not primarily related to Covid-19. With the

Wolfgang Felix11 December 2020PROGEST

Europcar - Clarification

Further to our previous note, we would like to make a clarification.
The member in question has been considering the legal basis of the non-disclosure of information in

Wolfgang Felix10 December 2020EUROPCAR

Europcar - to the regulators

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
One Sarria member is frustrated by Europcar’s information policy around the term sheets underlying the new facilities and have informed us they will be notifying the FCA and

Wolfgang Felix10 December 2020EUROPCAR

Casino - taking advantage of markets to extend maturities

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
As we expected, post the Leader Price completion, Casino are partially tendering for their HY bonds in order to meet their Gross Debt covenant at year-end. What is surprising is

Tomás Mannion9 December 2020CASINO

Intralot - sloth machine

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Intralot results track well at EBITDA level (incl. NL one-off sale), but continue to disappoint us slightly on cash production - chiefly due to

Wolfgang Felix8 December 2020INTRALOT

Douglas - Thoughts

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Yesterday’s Reuter’s article made quite the impact on the bonds this morning, although prices are largely back. However, the only news

Wolfgang Felix8 December 2020DOUGLAS

Pro-Gest - 2020's most sensible refi

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The first leg of the refinancing is coming.

As we previously wrote, Credit Suisse had been looking to find investors for

Wolfgang Felix7 December 2020PROGEST

Rekeep (Manutencoop) – Santobono case and 2020 guidance

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The news on the Santobono legal case is better than expected. The revenues impact from a 6-months tendering ban is

Juliano Torii7 December 2020REKEEP

Tui - lucky bondholders

Tui bondholders are counting their lucky stars as the Company announced another wave of financial support, this time a €500m shareholder rights issue combined with further government support. The proceeds of

Tomás Mannion3 December 2020TUI

Europcar - Hmmmm...

Please refer to our updated analysis here.

It’s a small update on paper. Our initial estimates have not been far off, and we’ve sent the updated recapitalisation table in our last email. The analysis now reflects the currently discussed deal.

Positioning:

Wolfgang Felix2 December 2020EUROPCAR

The bonds of WFS and CMA CGM, and US-China relations

US-China relations and the bonds of WFS and CMA CGM: in the past, volumes in both air freight and container shipping have been driven by

Juliano Torii2 December 2020CMA CGM, WFS

WFS – Q3 20 results and call points to continued improvement

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The Q3 20 results confirm the recovery momentum in the sector, as explained below. EBITDA was in line with our estimates despite

Aengus McMahon2 December 2020WFS

Pro-Gest: Moving the Parts

Please find our updated analysis here.

While we have news that the Italian container board and corrugated markets are stable, they are so on a lower level than a year ago. We therefore see

Wolfgang Felix1 December 2020PROGEST

Casino - cash in account, now for more buybacks

Please find our analysis here.

The completion of the Leader Price sale to Aldi paves the way for further buybacks prior to year-end. Casino completed the sale yesterday receiving €648m of cash yesterday, in line with our expectations. We were surprised that

Tomás Mannion1 December 2020CASINO

KME – change in positioning Intek warrants and SACE loan

Please find our updated analysis on KME here.

Manufacturing momentum: European Manufacturing PMIs remain strong even during the second wave of lockdowns. KME is highly diversified among sectors and should remain well supported going forward, despite a

Juliano Torii30 November 2020KME

The AA - Albert Bridge seeking "fellow shareholders" to reject the Private Equity bid of 35p

This morning’s press (Times and Telegraph) reports that Albert Bridge, a 20% shareholder in the AA, are asking fellow shareholders to block the takeover stating

Tomás Mannion30 November 2020AA