Iceland - Kantar numbers contrast with Iceland's performance

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

We published our updated analysis last week, so this is a short note following the release of Kantar’s 12-week data and updated market share. Away from the catching headlines of

Tomás Mannion30 March 2022ICELAND

Steinhoff - Top-down alternative

Please find our unchanged model here.

AGM presentations do not usually contain new information. But on this occasion, the Steinhoff shareholder presentation did contain a new perspective. Having for years very much followed a bottom-up approach through

Wolfgang Felix30 March 2022STEINHOFF

Iceland/Casino/Boparan - comment

Food Inflation: As measured by the chicken we buy on a regular basis from Ocado, prices have increased 10% since summer 2021. Those

Wolfgang Felix29 March 2022CASINO, BOPARAN, ICELAND

KCA Deutag - comment

KCA Deutag are rumoured to be in exclusive talks with Saipem over their onshore drilling activities. Saipem have 66 rigs (compared to KCA Deutag’s 76), which generate

Tomás Mannion28 March 2022KCA Deutag

Boparan - comment

The CMA (not the shipping giant, but the Competition and Market Authority) has authorised Ranjit Boparan’s takeover of Banham Poultry. The acquisition was originally

Aengus McMahon28 March 2022BOPARAN

Haya - comment

Haya has reached another milestone on their path through restructuring, with 84.44% of bondholders signing the lock-up agreement. Note, the Adhoc committee accounts for

Tomás Mannion28 March 2022HAYA

Iceland - comment

We finally clarified some outstanding issues with IR yesterday all of which were minor in detail. We haven’t changed our assumptions in our models, but expect the

Tomás Mannion25 March 2022ICELAND

KCA Deutag - comment

KCA announced this morning that they have (been forced to) sell their 5 rigs based in Nigeria. The sale reflects the recent Nigerian "Local Content Act", which encourages

Tomás Mannion25 March 2022KCA Deutag

Boparan: Happy grasping nettles

Please find our updated analysis here.

That excel arithmetic would fail to provide the answers for FY22 was very much clear ahead of the results (see our email last week). But even tossing those forecasts into the

Aengus McMahon24 March 2022BOPARAN

Tullow - comment

Tullow has appointed a new CFO, Jonathon Swinney, who is familiar to High Yield investors and the incumbent CFO of Enquest. Jonathon was

Tomás Mannion24 March 2022TULLOW

Rallye - comment

Rallye announced a tender for €247m of unsecured Rallye debt at 15%. Rallye is using the unused balance of February 2021 tender facility provided by Fimalac. The arranged facility was originally

Tomás Mannion23 March 2022CASINO

Iceland - tweaking our model for energy inflation

Please find our updated model on Iceland here. We have made some adjustments to our previous model, mainly on energy costs and price inflation.
Energy costs, food inflation, and return to workplace post-Covid all weigh on Iceland’s recent bond movements. In our analysis, we focus on

Tomás Mannion22 March 2022ICELAND

Douglas - this year

Please find our updated model of Douglas here.

As we are sieving through yieldy, but performing names, it’s been time to sharpen our pencils and form an opinion on Douglas and of course, you’ve seen our decision already two weeks ago. Nevertheless, with Q122 behind us,

Wolfgang Felix21 March 2022DOUGLAS

Boparan - comment

The UK competition authority (CMA) will give its decision on the acquisition of poultry farming and processing assets of Banham by 25 March. The assets are owned by

Aengus McMahon21 March 2022BOPARAN

KCA Deutag - comment

KCA released a non-committal email this morning referring to its Russian operations. This is likely in response to several questions from analysts, including ourselves, seeking

Tomás Mannion21 March 2022KCA Deutag

OHLA - comment

The Spanish government has approved a law allowing cost pass-through for public works contracts signed before 2021. The construction trade body is now asking for

Aengus McMahon21 March 2022OHLA, OHL

Vallourec - comment

Vallourec has completed its selection process and has appointed Philippe Guillemot as Chairman and CEO. Mr Guillemot was f

Tomás Mannion21 March 2022VALLOUREC

Tullow - comment

Tullow completed the acquisition of the pre-emption of the sale of Occidental stake in the Ghanian fields. The completion price was $118m, which will be

Tomás Mannion21 March 2022TULLOW

Boparan – Beyond the spreadsheets

Please find our updated analysis here.

Ahead of next week’s reporting, we have re-built our model to reflect the latest feed prices and estimate the incremental impact on Boparan’s liquidity this year. But arithmetic being key, it’s important to

Wolfgang Felix19 March 2022BOPARAN

Casino/Rallye - comments

Rallye released its Annual Report late last night with little new information to the market. We are a little surprised that there is only

Tomás Mannion18 March 2022CASINO