Senvion will not emerge from insolvency anymore.

Senvion have switched form offering the company as going concern to an asset sale strategy,

While bondholders as of yesterday are accelerating, we have been adding our latest insights to a flexible restructuring model of both, a liquidation (unlikely, but useful background) and a distressed sale

All,

Please find a light update to the model and analysis here.

We repeat that we would not be exposed to Senvion at

Regarding Senvion Consent Solicitation:

Again, as per the first consent solicitation, this is a formality as the majority of the bonds is already controlled

Senvion GmbH have filed for Insolcency in Germany - specifically for a procedure that allows for a self administration (DIP) process, where management stay in control. 

Senvion announce that the consent solicited last week has been obtained

As per pour mail last week, Senvion have still not found a financing solution and cash is running extremely tight.

Senvion are out with a consent solicitation. The request is to raise the threshold for acceleration of the bonds from 25% to 50%. 

Having dodged the Q4 bonanza, we are putting the short on again with 4% of NAV for now. We are looking to capture 30+ points of downside. Please find the updated analysis

Some evidence of the time fuse underlying a deal at Senvion:

Apparently a portfolio financing of several wind parks in Chile is unable to close because of lack of financing available for the Senvion turbines. Senvion are due

Nordex are to report their 2018 statements (recall that we have taken the short off). We expect a sudden movement into a net cash position on the back of significant prepayments on orders won in

An internal memo by Senvion CEO Yves Rannou has been leaked. 

It gives no specifics unfortunately, but it does support our thesis that:

1) The turbine portfolio is narrow, but - for lack of sharing

Senvion have appointed Neil Robson of THM as CRO

TCG: Thomas Cook’s competitor, TUI have announced the sale of a majority stake in Corsair. Corsair is a French airline based out of Orly airport - only flies long-haul, with 7 aircraft.

Following lender's rejection of Triton’s initial offer some two weeks ago, Triton have agreed to inject E50m in cash through additional equity.

Some morning thoughts:
- Debenhams yesterday published an update indicating that the season is going worse than expected and that LdL sales continue to slip. As a consequence, management is now looking for a more comprehensive restructuring (i.e. debt for equity) instead of just a bridge facility. 

-Senvion

Attached is our analysis of Senvion. (download it here)

The name deteriorated somewhat more quickly than we had anticipated, although it is now clear to us why that was so. 

Now S&P are out with their downgrade as well.

CCC+ with outlook negative.

Moody’s downgraded Senvion this morning to B3 from B2, both regarding corporate family and probability of default.

Intralot: Playtech to report today. UBS amongst other recommendations flagged a risk of tax issues, apparently from Italy. Through their 20% stake in Gamenet Intralot are also exposed to the market. So we are looking forward to learn more

Thoughts for the day:
- Senvion: the company revised 2018 guidance down to revenues of around E1.45bn and adjusted EBITDA of

Just some miscellaneous notes (not exhaustive) while going through the bottom of the market:
- Nyrstar: we are glad we’ve stayed out of it

Just some noteworthy movements yesterday:

- Nyrstar: we are glad we’ve stayed