“The growth targets are fine. Letters of credit are the same story and every retailer has this problem. Supplier risk doesn’t always crystalise as a letter of credit but at least its manageable this way. One can adjust metrics for letter of credit but then one should adjust leverage for all retailers, but that wouldn’t achieve much,” independent special situations firm Sarria said. “That said, you can’t entirely ignore it, as usually that risk is compensated out of gross margin and not interest.”
Read More“The Teract deal is the only deal in town,” said Tomas Mannion, a senior investment analyst at Sarria Ltd., an independent credit research firm. “Apart from a white knight sale — which this one essentially is — there is no other way.”
Read More"The specific CS situation is mostly bedded down now, but it’s no time for complacency," said Wolfgang Felix, senior analyst at credit firm Sarria Limited. "Investors realise that these bonds contractually circumvent the concept of absolute priority to their own disadvantage."
Read More“It’s a recognition of the fact that you need the family onboard to fix future problems because they know the company and control its surroundings,” said Wolfgang Felix, co-founder of independent credit analysis firm Sarria,
Read More“It’s probably just a matter of catching a falling spoon,” independent special situations firm Sarria said. “But the spoon has two explosives attached, which we are very mindful of.”
Read More“We are not lawyers, but we struggle to see a legal angle for Akin Gump. Bonds are locked up under the Adler plan with over 75% on three issues and with clear majorities in the other three,” Sarria said. “In the German voting Adler’s plan received over 75% approval for all but the 2029s. That’s all more than enough for a cross-class cram down.”
Sarria added that either plan is flawed, but called the Adler plan a “sitter”.
Read More“They had significant write-downs on their Italian joint venture recently. CarVal’s sale of their stake, effectively resulted in a 90% write-down of the Italian SPV based on underlying assets,” independent special situations firm Sarria said. “This is an astonishing number and clearly far too much to apply across the back-book. But a number of questions linger from that episode.”
Read MoreCurrent trading is not much of a concern yet, Sarria noted. Cash is weaker than expected and some of it will be down to an outflow of payables, but pre-funding inventory is the big concern, even with Matalan’s cash balance.
Read MoreThey have good liquidity and decent assets with rent linked to CPI, independent special situations firm Sarria noted. “Raising rent can of course lead to vacancies, but that’s where it pays to hold attractive assets,” Sarria told Debtwire. “On the UK hotel portfolio, after the Queen’s funeral has been televised across the world, I assume the next ten years of UK tourism are safe.”
Read MoreIndependent special situations firm Sarria had expected late 2022 or early 2023 would be the inflection point but noted it is now happening so much earlier. They were confident in
Read MoreWolfgang Felix from Sarria told 9fin: “Management is currently prioritising getting customers into stores and driving up overall market share rather than increasing margins. This year’s objective is definitely to maximise revenue in preference to margins.”
Read MoreShould any refinancing not materialise, then there remains a risk of a debt restructuring according to a 17 June desk note from independent special situations firm Sarria.
Read More“The Amodio’s have been to the Spanish regulator and there is now a co-operation agreement between CAABSA and OHL registered with the CNMV,” Sarria said. “If EU and US infrastructure spend takes off, then
Read More“Matalan are somewhat anti-cyclical and have a track record of outperforming in crises. Last time in 2009, before the cotton spike, CVC even came with a GBP 1.5bn bid at 10x,” Sarria continued. “It’s a great performance any way you look at it. The subs are 3.5x leveraged on our math and are par paper.”
Read More“An update on liquidity would have been helpful, but it was clearly not something worth shouting about. Also the timing is now sensitive while negotiating at so many levels,” Sarria said.
They will receive a boost from the Corestate stake sale but most of the Corestate stake was held at Aggregate 2, which is separate and direct holdings were small, so that should strengthen [Aggregate shareholder] Walcher’s negotiating position, Sarria added.
Read More“Adler are marrying the pretty daughter first to generate liquidity for the treatment of the sickly daughter,” Sarria said. “They are selling good, fungible assets, which concentrates stakeholders on the riskier development book.”
Read MoreSpeaking on a real estate webinar today (14 October), Sarria analyst Tom Mannion said the refinancing negotiations would likely be "difficult" given
Read MoreSome of the [Viceroy] valuations seem accurate, according to Sarria. “We are looking at which property is in which entity and how much debt each guarantees as well as how much money each box makes or needs.”
Sarria will host a webinar at 3pm UKT this Thursday (14 October) to discuss the European high yield real estate sector. To attend, one can sign up here.
Read MoreThe market expected more cash coming in at once but it didn’t, independent special situations firm Sarria noted. “We see LTV well above the 39%, but what will they buy with the cash when it comes? Amir Dayan may have cash stashed elsewhere, but we’d really like to see the OpCos.”
“When I ride a rollercoaster, I have to have my eyes wide open,“ Sarria commented. “But some people like to go with their eyes closed. Vivion is for them.”
Read MoreSarria noted they were short earlier in the year thinking they would run out of cash, and it was “astonishing” they didn’t. “The franchise is unimpaired and the move to online still stops at their price bracket, but they are now more levered than before – despite appearances,” they commented. “The EUR 100m cashflow in June only shows that the Takko had good sales and management said as much. We can rest assured that the EUR 150m [cash balance] won’t be around at quarter end.”
Read More