Posts by Tomás Mannion
Kem One - Market Forces - Positioning

Unfortunately, due to a lack of available borrow, we have exited our short position in Kem One. When we took our short position, borrow was available, but we are closing now to reflect the reality of the market. We have updated our model and further expanded on our analysis of what the next steps will be for the Company and bondholders.

Kem One Credit Research, Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion
Rekeep - The Italian drivers

We have revisited our Rekeep model and delved further into the segmental data that Rekeep provides. This enables us to make some additional observations, including the differences between the international Facility Management business and the traditional/Italian segment. The numbers are slightly complicated because of the subdivision of the energy segment, which has just commenced. Despite this, the data provides additional insight into the Rekeep business, further supporting our investment decision.

Commercial activity and positive cash flow are the perennial focus for Rekeep investors. We concur, but we find additional moving parts that further influence our investment decision.

Rekeep Credit Research, Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion
Cerba - Next steps

We are maintaining our position in Cerba following the publication of the Q2 numbers. We have updated and refined our forecasts for the coming 18 months.  With a restructuring imminent, we have expanded on our previous liquidity scenarios, examining the options available to the Company over the coming quarters.

Cerba Credit Research, Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion
Transcom - Altor on hold - Positioning

With the upcoming debt maturities now well understood by the market, we have revisited the full range of options available to all stakeholders. Building on our earlier analysis, we continue to assess scenarios that include both an equity injection and a partial write-off of existing debt as possible routes to achieving an extension of Transcom’s maturity profile. That said, the most recent set of financial results, which were notably below expectations, offer little support to the Company’s refinancing ambitions. In the aftermath of the second quarter results, we have re-examined the probability of each refinancing scenario materialising, which in turn has led us to reconsider our previous investment view.

Transcom Credit Research, Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion
Altice International - Recapitalisation options

As SFR is going through the courts, our attention returns to Altice International. Is the French deal a blueprint for its smaller sibling, or what would be the right structure? We have updated our model and drivers and have been playing with a recapitalisation model to gauge the options available to all parties. We have thereby gained a clearer idea of the scale of each deal component and, relative to current market prices, have come to a conclusion on our position in the name.

Altice International Credit Research Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion
Atos - Margins versus Restructuring Costs

Based on our fundamental analysis, we focus on two distinct factors in the Company’s projections. Both of these factors are fundamental to future cash flow, which is a pertinent topic for Atos. Our view differs considerably from that shared by the Company, and we maintain our opinion on the name itself, as well as the relative value between the various layers of the capital structure.

Atos Credit Research, Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion
AMS Osram - Reading the Tea Leaves - Positioning

As previously noted, there has been a divergence between the credit and equity outlook, presenting several compelling trading opportunities. In light of the Company’s recent private placements, we believe this is an appropriate time to reassess our positioning. Building on our prior cash flow analysis, we are now placing greater emphasis on the expected timing of asset sales and upcoming refinancing events. Taken together, these factors support an adjustment to our position ahead of the Q2 earnings release.

AMS Osram Credit Research, Analysis, Capital Structure
Tomás Mannion