Ineos Quattro - comment

Ineos held an informal conference call hosted by Bank of America on Monday. While details are still emerging, the commentary broadly echoed the group’s market update earlier this month. Tom Crotty, Group Director, noted some early positive indicators for 2026, including increased industry support in Europe and a moderation in Chinese investment. However, he acknowledged that trading conditions remain challenging, driven by elevated energy costs in Europe and ongoing chemical oversupply in China.

The group declined to provide any details on the forthcoming 2027 Ineos Quattro refinancing and neither confirmed nor denied recent market speculation regarding a potential equity injection or additional inventory financing to support the refinancing.

Although bonds have rallied on the back of improved sentiment, we expect any upside to remain limited. The broader chemicals sector has yet to reflect the “green shoots” narrative, and uncertainty around end-market recovery and refinancing remains elevated.