OHLA - comment
The decision to split the Canalejas assets paves the way for OHLA to dispose of its share. We estimate the on-site 4 Seasons Hotel to be worth c€300m. Given a 50/50 split, the Galeria (which will be retained by OHLA) should also be valued at €300m. At €22m in rent, this equates to a gross rental yield of >7%. It remains to be seen whether OHLA executes on a sale. The €600m total valuation of the complex would be a long way below the €850m that OHLA has claimed the site is worth, but is above the €500m - €600m we have estimated in the past.
To arrive at our valuation of the hotel, we looked at the 2024 results of the Canalejas complex and made estimates for 2025. Revenue was €92m (+28%), and we assume 2025 growth will be €110m (+20%). 2024 EBITDA margin was 31%; we assume it rises to 33% this year => EBITDA of €36m. The hotel accounted for 85% of 2024 revenue (and EBITDA, we estimate); in 2025, we assume EBITDA is €29m, which equates to 80% of EBITDA. The reduction is on the back of growth in contribution from retail as occupancy rises. In valuing what is a luxury hotel, we apply a 10x multiple, giving us a valuation of €290m - €300m. The valuation equates to €1.5m per room, which is at the top end of the luxury market scale.