Please find our updated analysis of Punch here.

Forever the ugly duckling among behind Stonegate, Punch is doing well and turning acquisitive. The bonds are trading rightfully tight now,

Wolfgang Felix10 March 2026PUNCH

Punch - comment

[Delayed] The company reported Q126 revenues on target on Tuesday, but we had probably been too optimistic on the margin for a Q1m, which is typically

Wolfgang Felix13 February 2026PUNCH

Stonegate, Punch - comment

Mitchells & Butlers' trading update bodes well for Punch and, in particular, Stonegate, which is expected to release its report tomorrow. The

Wolfgang Felix15 January 2026STONEGATE, PUNCH, PUBS

Punch - comment

The Q425 call was a non-event. Like its bonds, the company continues to do well in this environment. Anyone who likes 7.5% yield needn’t

Wolfgang Felix27 October 2025PUNCH

Punch - Post refi

Please find our updated analysis of Punch here.

Following its refinancing in Q325, 7% YTW seem adequate for the better of the two UK pub companies. Yes, that is Punch being better than Stonegate as the latter is

Wolfgang Felix21 August 2025PUNCH

Punch / Stonegate - comment

S&P has been resetting their expectations for the New Normal equilibrium in UK Pub revenues, ending all allowances and adjustments that

Wolfgang Felix13 August 2025PUNCH, STONEGATE

Punch - comment

The pub operator reported results on Friday - without a call, as those are reserved for half-years. Management must be commended for doing a great

Wolfgang Felix4 August 2025PUNCH

Punch - comment

Management are exploring refinancing options in the near term and the company has hired Barclays and NatWest to do so, which

Buy Side, Sell SideWolfgang Felix12 May 2025PUNCH

Punch - The last will be the first.

Please find our updated analysis of Punch here.

Before the pandemic, who’d have thought that Punch would do better than Stonegate these days? It’s (almost) always been the gastro/destination/bar

Buy SideWolfgang Felix17 March 2025PUNCH

Punch - comment

Punch results came in right on target this morning. We are initially not finding anything extraordinary to report on the name, but will scrutinise results later in the day.

Wolfgang Felix14 February 2025PUNCH

Punch - Post Inflation

Please find our updated analysis here.

As stressed / distressed investment Punch is past its prime, again. The company should be able to refinance at will as soon as Fortress feel the market won’t

Wolfgang Felix17 December 2024PUNCH

Punch Pubs - comment

Punch Pubs has announced that Andy Spencer, currently Chief Operating Officer, has been appointed as Chief Executive Officer. He will assume

Wolfgang Felix21 August 2024PUNCH

Punch - Timing

Please find our updated analysis of Punch here.

As we’ve been saying before, this name should refinance soon. If we were management we would not hold out to next year for the last 1.5 points of call protection but

Wolfgang Felix6 August 2024PUNCH

Punch - The last will be first

Please find what is likely our last update of Punch here.

The trade got away from us last year as the bonds would always trade just a little tighter than where we were prepared to buy in. Ultimately it was a matter of

Wolfgang Felix22 May 2024PUNCH

Punch - 2024 and beyond

Please find our updated analysis of Punch Taverns here.

All good things must come to an end. In the case of Punch Taverns though we’ve missed it. The bonds always traded too tight for us and the opportunity is

Wolfgang Felix18 March 2024PUNCH

Punch - comment

The company published its interim results ending in December. Sales were

Wolfgang Felix16 February 2024PUNCH

Punch - comment

So Punch management had the nerve to hold an entire FY23 conference call without telling us that they paid a €20m dividend the day after closing the accounts. We understand that the

Wolfgang Felix14 December 2023PUNCH

Punch - Tight in more than one way.

Please find our updated model of Punch here.

Punch SSNs are the type of bond that at any time tends to trade just a few points tighter than where we would like. Trading tight in the mid 80s going into the

Wolfgang Felix4 December 2023PUNCH

Punch - Bottom Of The Glass

Please find our updated analysis of Punch Pubs here.

Q3 has been somewhat uneventful, most notably solidifying management’s departure from the previous conversion strategy that foresaw selling pubs to fund the conversion of some of them from L&T into MPs. The company only converted one such pub,

Wolfgang Felix19 September 2023PUNCH

Punch - Conversion

Please find our updated analysis here.

Upon some further analysis of the latest financials and pub economics at large, we are becoming more constructive on the name and may end up taking a

Wolfgang Felix19 May 2023PUNCH