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Douglas results - leverage back up

Results out this morning.
- Growth is good, but at the expense of margin. Nothing new here.
- Sales and Ebitda are a little better than we thought. 

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Wolfgang Felix16 May 2019DOUGLAS
Thomas Cook - results, write-offs and layering

Results out this morning.
Two key notes:- Airline sale - have received multiple bids, including for the whole airline.  Currently assessing the bids and will provide update in due course.

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Wolfgang Felix16 May 2019THOMAS COOK
TCG - TUI with weak H119

As expected, the TUI reporting this morning reveals a weak H1 (October - March). Rad-through for Thomas Cook:

1) Knock-on from Summer 2018 heatwave. Consumers had had enough sun for the year

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Wolfgang Felix15 May 2019THOMAS COOK
New Look rated Caa2 by Moody's

Moody’s have rated New Look Caa2 with a review for a further upgrade.

The agency expects further cost and thus leverage reduction throughout the year. We concur

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Wolfgang Felix10 May 2019NEW LOOK
Pizza Express Thesis/Model

Following the results we have made not yet made any changes to our position.

Please find the updated model here. 

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Wolfgang Felix10 May 2019PIZZA EXPRESS
Debt Collectors results - more of the same

Arrow and Cabot have today released interesting and bland results respectively.

-> Arrow is still FCF flat before paying any interest.

-> Including the new ABL facility, Arrow now have ~ £220m of liquidity headroom, which

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Wolfgang Felix9 May 2019
Douglas - shorting the SSNs
Wolfgang Felix9 May 2019DOUGLAS
Galapagos postpone conference call as well
Wolfgang Felix8 May 2019GALAPAGOS
Intralot - Management Overhaul

Following further detail on recent changes to Intralot’s management board, please ind our updated analysis here (see sections on Shareholders and Management).

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Wolfgang Felix8 May 2019INTRALOT
Select - Another one bites the dust

Continued negative news for British retail - including our anti cyclical positions in New Look, Matalan and to an extent Iceland.

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Wolfgang Felix8 May 2019NEW LOOK, MATALAN, ICELAND
Steinhoff - Annual Financials 2017

Steinhoff have finally published accounts for FY 2017. In itself that’s a huge positive. First impressions:

- First off, it is astonishing to see the scale of fraud that went undetected for such a long time. But that’s for light reading at home.

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Wolfgang Felix8 May 2019STEINHOFF
Intralot - management appointments

Please find here an article with details on Intralot’s new management appointments.

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Wolfgang Felix7 May 2019INTRALOT
Sarria - Focus List

Please find the new Focus List of names we are interested in here.

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Wolfgang Felix7 May 2019
Astaldi update

Please find an update on Astaldi here.

Given the opacity and binary nature of our nearly 3% Astaldi position, we are looking into

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Wolfgang Felix7 May 2019ASTALDI
TCG: Lufthansa an unlikely buyer of Condor

In light of today’s deadline for preliminary bids on TCG’s airline, Lufthansa have made the below comments to Reuters at their AGM:

"Germany's largest airline Deutsche Lufthansa will make a non-binding offer for Thomas Cook's Condor with

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Wolfgang Felix7 May 2019THOMAS COOK
Galapagos beat our expectation

Galapagos clearly beat our expectations in Q418. 

While the Enexio business cratered a little less dramatically

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Wolfgang Felix3 May 2019GALAPAGOS
New Look

New Look have completed their balance sheet restructuring.

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Wolfgang Felix3 May 2019NEW LOOK
Thomas Cook - looking for another £400m of debt

According to Sky news: https://news.sky.com/story/struggling-thomas-cook-flies-towards-400m-bank-deal-11710248 E&Y have ordered TCG to go raise another £400m if they want sign-off

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Wolfgang Felix3 May 2019THOMAS COOK
Kantar released UK supermarket data

antar released UK supermarket data today though the 21st of April, and thus including Easter. Iceland's FY19 numbers won’t be released until 13th June. The Kantar numbers overlap Iceland’s

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Wolfgang Felix30 April 2019ICELAND
Pizza Express call uneventful

The Pizza Express call has been hopelessly uneventful:

- Management gave no information besides the numbers in the presentation. 

- Shareholders remain “engaged” on the capital structure issue, but no

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Wolfgang Felix30 April 2019PIZZA EXPRESS
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