Vallourec are due to release their numbers for Q2 and a more detailed H1 2019. They are normally released after the market closes at 4:30 UK time with call at 5:00 UK time.

Tomás Mannion23 July 2019VALLOUREC

Kantar vs. Iceland

Following the Kantar release this morning indicating that supermarket sales were down -0.5% overall, we believe that our Iceland model works well for the forthcoming Q1 numbers, but

Wolfgang Felix23 July 2019ICELAND

Rallye - Convertible premium filed

As we are not actual bondholders, we cannot ourselves reach out to Linklaters (représentant de la masse) to ask for the filing documents. But it may be worth asking

Wolfgang Felix23 July 2019CASINO

Intralot sell stake in Helenic Lotteries

Intralot have announced this morning that it has agreed the sale of its stake in Helenic Lotteries to OPAP for E20m.

Wolfgang Felix23 July 2019INTRALOT

Thomas Cook's new intermediate holdings

Having done further work on TCG’s legal structure last week, we have come to the conclusion that under the current terms including Fosun, a restructuring will likely trigger CDS after all.

Intermediate holdings:

Wolfgang Felix22 July 2019THOMAS COOK

Casino's sale of Vindémia

Today’s announced sale of Vindémia - the Indian Ocean businesss - is a mild positive from our point of view.

While Casino’s balance sheet was promising E330m and Casino’s IR team

Wolfgang Felix22 July 2019CASINO

Rallye Converts - Legal view

We’ve received legal advice on the value of the conversion option embedded in the 2022 Rallye bonds.

In summary, the news is not as positive as we had hoped, but there appears to be some value nonetheless. Specifically:

Wolfgang Felix22 July 2019CASINO

Vallourec questions for the call

Vallourec are due to release results next week, Wednesday after the Close of market, with call later that evening.

Main questions for the call:

Tomás Mannion19 July 2019VALLOUREC

UK retail - ASOS and Brick&Mortar volatility

As per my mail a week ago, even ASOS are struggling in this UK retail environment. But not as much as we expected.

Away from its automation issues in Europe and slow brand stocking in the US,

Wolfgang Felix18 July 2019NEW LOOK, MATALAN, UK RETAIL

Adient

Please find an expanded analysis of Adient here.

We are comfortable with the risks embedded in the bonds and that the automotive supplier will stabilise cash flows sequentially demo here (on admittedly easy comps).

Wolfgang Felix16 July 2019ADIENT

More on: Astaldi receives revised non-binding offer with non-binding LOIs

Further to our email this morning:

1) The Astaldi "Bridge Financing” provided by banks includes the Fortress facility - the E75m drawn and the E125m undrawn. That was apparently necessary ahead of the deadline yesterday to allow

Wolfgang Felix16 July 2019ASTALDI

Thomas Cook CDS thoughts

Whether or not 2019 CDS will be triggered may not so much depend on ‘when' the company restructures, but ‘how'.

Further to a note from GS this morning, we think some of the points have merit:

Wolfgang Felix16 July 2019THOMAS COOK

Astaldi receives revised non-binding offer with non-binding LOIs

We think this will work. It must have been pre-discussed with the courts as per our last mail.
Salini made a non-binding offer for the majority of Astaldi. It is billed as an “update” to the one made in

Wolfgang Felix16 July 2019ASTALDI

Thomas Cook Restructuring Model

Please find our updated analysis of Thomas Cook here Also included is a new restructuring model where we are separating the operator

Wolfgang Felix15 July 2019THOMAS COOK

Wolfgang Felix12 July 2019CASINO

Steinhoff with positive H1

Steinhoff published their H119 report today with a consolidated (careful) EBITDA of E300m for the 6 months. The company stated that it expects the second half to be more challenging, in line with what other retailers have reported. Thus arithmetically The company is now

Wolfgang Felix12 July 2019STEINHOFF