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Loxam initiation

Please find the 1-pager here.

Despite the severe revenue contraction the company is likely to suffer in Q2 20, we estimate

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Juliano Torii20 May 2020LOXAM
CMA - updated 1-pager post new state guaranteed facility

Please find the updated 1-pager here.

We maintain our position as we see the recently announced EUR1.05b state backed facility as confirmation

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Juliano Torii18 May 2020CMA CGM
Takko - Lessons from 2004

Our stress test from March 17th showed the company scraping by on the basis it had to close for only 4 weeks. Clearly we are beyond that point now and the company announced today that

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Wolfgang Felix15 May 2020TAKKO
AA - Steady as she goes

Please find the updated model here

As numbers were pre-released there is limited update to historic, but we have expanded our model, further integrating

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Tomás Mannion14 May 2020AA
Lycra - call tomorrow at 2pm, results uninspiring

Lycra have reported their Full year numbers to December 31st 2019, with reported adjusted EBITDA of 123m, down on lower volume and

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Tomás Mannion14 May 2020LYCRA
CMA - Thoughts on new state g'teed facility

Please refer to our analysis here.

CMA CGM this morning announced a new EUR1.05b loan which is 70% guaranteed by the French state. The loan is from BNP, HSBC and SG. We believe

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Juliano Torii13 May 2020CMA CGM
Tui - call at 9, lots of questions.

Still going through the details of tStill going through the details of the results,  but a couple of points to make:

1 The covenants on the RCF have been suspended and will be tested in September 2021. This is prior to

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Tomás Mannion13 May 2020TUI
Douglas - without Tina Mueller

Morale suffers when the seas are high and the captain is under deck.

The news that Tina Mueller will be out of office for several

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Wolfgang Felix12 May 2020DOUGLAS
Pro-Gest - time to take another look

Pro-Gest had a super strong call.

Conclusion: We expect Pro Gest to hold on to most of their

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Wolfgang Felix10 May 2020PROGEST
Adient - information for read-across

Adient management made several important observations on the call this week:

1) Especially since raising the additional 600m last month, the company has

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Wolfgang Felix10 May 2020ADIENT
Intralot - ASAP

If Evercore ‘ever' had a plan at the start of their engagement, that is surely out the door by now. Nevertheless, the company made an interesting comment

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Wolfgang Felix10 May 2020INTRALOT
Europcar - On liquidity and future debt capacity

Please refer to our updated analysis here.

From our perspective the call was largely uneventful except for two nuggets of information:

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Wolfgang Felix8 May 2020EUROPCAR
Teva results strong, deleveraging and focus on future growth

Very confident and nearly bullish call from TEVA management on the release of their Q1 results. Leverage

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Tomás Mannion7 May 2020TEVA
AA - no surprise, significant focus on cost savings going forward

Given the Company released a shorter statement in March with headline numbers, there was nothing new on past performance. Guidance limited

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Tomás Mannion7 May 2020AA
Matalan - Modelling Covid-19 and thoughts on financing

Please find our updated analysis and model here.

Having modelled the quarterly cashflows of Matalan through the next two years, we have been asking three simple questions:

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Wolfgang Felix6 May 2020MATALAN, UK RETAIL
Codere - another restructuring due - fundamental problems compounded by Covid-19

A full restructuring is required to ensure the survival of Codere.
Even prior to Covid-19 we were

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Tomás Mannion1 May 2020CODERE
Update from INTU management - wider restructuring pending

Perhaps an acknowledgement to the realities fo the situation, INTU have appointed David Hargrave as Chief Restructuring Officer. David has previously been a partner at PwC and EY.
Separately,

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Tomás Mannion1 May 2020INTU
Algeco - Initiation

Please find our initiation of Algeco here.

We are not at this time committing to a position in Algeco. Our analysis suggests that Algeco have sufficient liquidity in place to weather

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Juliano Torii30 April 2020ALGECO
Europcar - Position

Please refer to our analysis on Europcar here.

Eurazeo have published a statement (attached) implying that

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Wolfgang Felix28 April 2020EUROPCAR
Europcar - Initiation

Please find our initiation on Europcar here.

Modelling Europcar’s fleet is somewhere between insightful and debilitating. However, the result has been very interesting.

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Wolfgang Felix27 April 2020EUROPCAR
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