Vallourec call in 15 minutes with advisers

Please find our latest analysis on Vallourec here.

There is a bondholder call with advisers today (in 15 min). The agenda is likely only

Tomás Mannion16 September 2020VALLOUREC

WFS - model update and comments for the Q2 20 results/call

We have updated our model for the Q2 20 results. Please find it here.

As the bond prices ventures closer to pre-virus levels, we find it difficult to see how these levels can be

Juliano Torii16 September 2020WFS

RAC - No decision on dividends, refinancing of Class B the focus

Please find our updated model here.

We had expected a decision on a potential £70m dividend to shareholders, but Company has not made a decision as they contemplate a refinancing of

Tomás Mannion15 September 2020RAC

WFS - Q2 20 results call and comments

With these relatively reassuring results, WFS buys some time to consider its next steps. We remain cautious on the name. We continue to

Juliano Torii11 September 2020WFS

Boparan - Thoughts on a refinancing

Please find our updated analysis on Boparan here.

On the subject of refinancing:

On the one hand, we have little doubt that the company will substantially achieve its heavily adjusted

Wolfgang Felix10 September 2020BOPARAN

Jaguar LandRover - taking profit but remaining net long into Q2

Please find our updated model on Jaguar LandRover here.

We are taking some profit in our position in Jaguar LandRover, reducing our position to

Tomás Mannion10 September 2020JAGUAR LAND ROVER

Adient - Q2 20 model update and comments

We have updated our model for the results of quarter ending June of 2020. Please find it here.

Adient's bond prices have largely recovered to pre-coronavirus levels. We are generally in

Juliano Torii9 September 2020

KCA Deutag - optimistic 5yr plan but base case upside remains for the pre-restructured bonds

Please find our updated analysis on KCA Deutag here.

Prior to Covid-19 and the oil price decline, KCA Deutag required a debt restructuring due to tightening covenants into 2020 and beyond. The Company has already

Tomás Mannion8 September 2020KCA Deutag

Intralot - Perhaps as soon as in two weeks

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Yesterday’s call was relatively uneventful, which in the context of Intralot’s recent past is a decidedly positive development.

Negative surprises were

Wolfgang Felix8 September 2020INTRALOT

CMA CGM - Q2 20 model update and comments

We have just updated our model on CMA CGM. Please find it here.

We are not considering the 25s. We feel that upside is limited from here. Even as CMA CGM could

Juliano Torii8 September 2020CMA CGM

Europcar - Conclusions

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Europcar’s announcement yesterday draws the final conclusion under the idea that VW might buy in after all or that another deal could be engineered.

Wolfgang Felix8 September 2020EUROPCAR

CMA CGM - Q2 20 results call and comments

CMA CGM has benefitted from the industry’s ability to maintain price discipline while reducing both capacity and associated costs in line with the significant contraction of volumes, in line with the observed in the rest of the industry. As we previously noted

Juliano Torii7 September 2020CMA CGM

Pizza Express - Biggest Hurdle taken

All,

Please refer to our slightly updated analysis of Pizza Express here.

With the CVA having been successfully accepted, the largest remaining hurdle to a smooth restructuring is the

Wolfgang Felix7 September 2020PIZZA EXPRESS

Iceland - layered again

Please refer to our Iceland analysis here.

As per our previous thoughts, this morning’s news of Malcolm Walker agreeing to buy-out Brait early should result

Wolfgang Felix7 September 2020ICELAND

Pizza Express - Beyond the CVA / fundamentals, timing, positioning

Please refer to our analysis and all new model of Pizza Express here.

Ahead of today's creditor meeting we have modelled Pizza Express going forward on the basis proposed in the LUA and CVA documentation. We understand that there has been

Wolfgang Felix4 September 2020PIZZA EXPRESS

Vallourec - All the Game Theory

Please find our updated analysis and model on Vallourec here.

We have analysed the mechanics, limits and negotiating positions of each party in a (not so) hypothetical Sauvegarde Scenario and have modelled the operations into the future.

Despite what we believe to be a

Tomás Mannion4 September 2020VALLOUREC

KME - initiation

We are initiating on KME. Please find our files here.

KME remains an interesting credit story, as the combination of lack of sell-side coverage and quirky reporting material makes it difficult for new investors to understand the business

Juliano Torii3 September 2020KME

Loxam - model update and comments on Q2 20 results

Please find our updated model for the Q2 20 results here.

Loxam’s Q1 20 and Q2 20 results have shown that the company was not just another “French Hertz”, as the underlying exposure to the

Juliano Torii2 September 2020LOXAM

CABB - model update and comments on Q2 20 results

Please find our updated model here.

CABB’s Q2 20 results last week supports our view on the resilience of the underlying AgChem footprint. The new AgChem contract will lead to a meaningful increase in

Juliano Torii2 September 2020CABB

Schmolz+Bickenbach - Capital Cut

Schmolz+Bickenbach may no longer have its bonds outstanding, but we have been keeping an eye out for the equity that replaced them.

The idea originally was to

Wolfgang Felix1 September 2020Schmolz + Bickenbach