We have not been rolling forward our model since the refinancing and the call this morning was predictably boring. What stands out is the reversion of

Wolfgang Felix18 March 2021LOWELL

Stena - initiation.

Please find our analysis and IM here.

We have modelled both the restricted and unrestricted group by division, including required transfers between the groups, and analysed the legal waterfall and game theory. In short, we see the bonds

Juliano Torii18 March 2021STENA

TAP - a logical request

Please find our updated analysis here.

It is no news that the start of 2021 has been slower than expected for airlines and it is in that context that we see the urgent request

Wolfgang Felix16 March 2021TAP

CGG - Single Layer

CGG has finally pulled the trigger on the USD 1.2bn refinancings of its post-Sauvegarde capital structure, put in place in late 2017/early 2018. The transaction was

Juliano Torii15 March 2021CGG

Takko: Still watching

It’s been stop and go at Takko. Although we were informed that despite some of the bad spillage into the press, talks with the NRW government might continue, management

Wolfgang Felix15 March 2021TAKKO

Intralot - State of play

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Intralot sent us a very Greek / Oracle message today reading in short: By way of update, we have no update. But when we will have an update we will update you. The update is that we

Wolfgang Felix12 March 2021INTRALOT

Douglas - Feeling good

What a difference 30 min make.

Surely the TLB wouldn’t get done without clarity surrounding the remaining process, but

Wolfgang Felix12 March 2021DOUGLAS

Douglas - Exit the 2LNs

We have had a great ride with the 2LNs from a straight 50c/E last summer. A lot of work has been spot on and it has paid off. Thankfully we’ve also

Wolfgang Felix12 March 2021DOUGLAS

SGL Carbon - Unexpected Resources

Please find our unchanged analysis on SGL here.
The research grant should support SGL’s FCF going forward. As with most research grants, this will flow over time instead of

Juliano Torii10 March 2021SGL Carbon

CMA CGM - Moody’s B1/Pos and How To Spend It

The Moody’s upgrade should support the transition of CMA CGM towards a normal (ie low yield) high yield company. YTWs in the new bonds have already come down to

Juliano Torii10 March 2021CMA CGM

Tullow Oil - Confident management focusing on Production

Away from the headline numbers, it should be noted there is likely to be a further $75m receipt later this year from a contingency payment for the Ugandan sale that occurred in April 2020. Additionally, the

Tomás Mannion10 March 2021TULLOW

Sarria: OHL - Model, Valuation and Positioning

Please find our updated analysis on OHL here.

With key support of the banks to the restructuring, as well as the Amodios and the vast majority of bondholders, we see minimum risks for the deal going forward.

Positioning:

Juliano Torii9 March 2021OHL

SGL Carbon - DB Data Correction and Change in Positioning

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Following a “data correction” by Deutsche Boerse announced on Friday, SGL Carbon will return to the SDAX, Germany’s small-company index. This follows the

Wolfgang Felix8 March 2021SGL Carbon

Tullow - Update prior to call on Wednesday

Prior to the FY20 results (to be held on Wednesday), please find our updated model here.

We have updated the model for the recent agreement with the RBL lenders, the announced non-operated asset sales and more importantly

Tomás Mannion5 March 2021TULLOW

WFS – new PSP cash and European timing

Please refer to our unchanged analysis on WFS here.
We have been estimating that WFS require approx.

Juliano Torii4 March 2021WFS

Steinhoff - Update and additional positioning

Please find our updated analysis here.

As the grand settlement will be taking longer than we had hoped and given our existing position in the

Wolfgang Felix3 March 2021STEINHOFF

CMA CGM – rates and cash in 2021

Please find our updated analysis here.

We have upgraded our model to forecast how volumes, rates and bunker price changes could impact the business in the coming year, both in terms of

Juliano Torii1 March 2021CMA CGM

OHL - on Guarantees and Turnaround

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
Results came mostly in line with guidance. However, any investment now is predicated on the outlook and the guarantees banks are willing to provide.

Performance Guarantees:

Juliano Torii1 March 2021OHL

Europcar - Post Sauvegarde

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Following Europcar's restructuring becoming effective on Thursday, Friday’s share price rocketed as the stock is becoming available to a wider investor audience. Nevertheless,

Wolfgang Felix1 March 2021EUROPCAR

CABB – Q4 20 trading update.

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The company continues to perform very well and we may be shelving our coverage of CABB as a result.

Top Line and Margins:

Juliano Torii26 February 2021CABB