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Tullow Oil - Something for everyone

We will update our model post the call at 9am.

Tullow is a company in transition and coupled with the fact that Ghanian Authority had already reported production figures through to July),

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Tomás Mannion15 September 2021TULLOW
Vivion - Letting some transparency in

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Underlining our comments about opacity in the company, Vivion’s sale of the Fuerst project was a little more complex than

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Aengus McMahon14 September 2021VIVION
Casino - Clearer picture emerging at Casino France Retail

Please find our updated model here.

Casino continue to challenge debt and equity analysts by changes to reporting perimeters and the accounting for

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Tomás Mannion8 September 2021CASINO
eDreams - Worth another look

Please find our updated analysis here.

Many companies are worth more today than they have been pre-pandemic. Few of them still generate negative EBITDA and even

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Wolfgang Felix6 September 2021E-DREAMS
Steinhoff - Lost and Found

Please refer to our unchanged analysis, here.

As events unfold by the hour, Christo Wiese has just provided clarity. The near octogenarian former shareholder and chairman stated that

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Wolfgang Felix6 September 2021STEINHOFF
Steinhoff - Missing Cat

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

So another cat’s gone missing. This time it’s Titan, signatories to a settlement support agreement, but of course, things have

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Wolfgang Felix6 September 2021STEINHOFF
eDreams - Proof of concept

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

With all the changes to booking behavior currently occurring and considering the large remaining payables balance after a year of pressure, we had become

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Wolfgang Felix2 September 2021E-DREAMS
Stena - Nothing

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here. We will be updating in the near future.

As cargo revenue once again outperformed our model, the company remains flush with liquidity. But

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Wolfgang Felix1 September 2021STENA
Hurricane - Decision time

Time is not a luxury creditors have at the moment. Even without an injunction, we still think bondholders should

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Tomás Mannion31 August 2021HURRICANE
Amigo Loans Ltd (Amigo): Now Or Never

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

In the forthcoming 2nd scheme attempt, bondholders shouldn’t have to equitise and clearly, the majority has no intention to do so. But if a sub-group of holders thinks like us

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Aengus McMahon31 August 2021AMIGO
Steinhoff - A long forgotten question

Please find our updated analysis here.

As per thesis, the sector with the strongest growth is the most hated - retail. But as Steinhoff continue growing at 3x the pace its bonds can PIK, we begin to wonder about a

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Wolfgang Felix27 August 2021STEINHOFF
Amigo Loans Ltd (Amigo) – The future is coming soon

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

By getting its accounts out yesterday, ahead of the 2nd September deadline, Amigo cured its covenant breach and will

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Aengus McMahon26 August 2021AMIGO
Vivion Investments Sarl – Perception, probability, value. 

Please find our initiation on Vivion Investments (Vivion) here.

Young, opaque, complex. We’ve been looking at valuations, risks, and opportunities. Ultimately, there is significant

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Aengus McMahon24 August 2021VIVION
INTU SGS - Firm foundations platform for growth?

Please find our unchanged model here.

Of course the mixed bag of performance figures was not unexpected, but looking beyond the reported figures, we find that adjusted

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Tomás Mannion20 August 2021INTU
Vallourec - The parts of the sum

Please find our updated model on Vallourec here.

Vallourec’s timing on expanding their mining operations has given converted bondholders a significant boost to their investment, but it masks

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Tomás Mannion13 August 2021VALLOUREC
Boparan – Sometimes when it rains, it pours

Please find our updated model here.

We are making some minor alterations to our model by adjusting the assumptions around working capital. Our central thesis is unchanged, Boparan faces

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Aengus McMahon10 August 2021BOPARAN
Almaviva - end of the track

Please find our unchanged model here.

Eventually, AlmaViva will pull into the refinancing station having stated on their Q2 conference call their intention to raise a new bond and RCF next month. This will

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Tomás Mannion9 August 2021ALMAVIVA
Making space for more new names

Clearly, H121 has been phenomenal and we are sitting on unlevered 23% net return for the first six months. So naturally, we should throw out a few names where the opportunity now lies behind us and that we no longer consider worth covering - unless you do, that is.

New Names:

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Wolfgang Felix5 August 2021GENERAL, PROGEST, PIZZA EXPRESS, ADIENT, EUROPCAR, TEVA, GREENSILL
Intralot - Post restructuring

Please find our post restructuring analysis of Intralot here.

Our thesis that the 24s might be able to better their position vs the 21s did not come true, but at least the backup did:

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Wolfgang Felix5 August 2021INTRALOT
Amigo Loans – Seeking a cure

Please see our unchanged analysis here.


Today’s market update from Amigo Loans sets the clock running on Amigo’s ability to cure its breach of the bonds’ covenant. Unless

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Aengus McMahon4 August 2021AMIGO
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