Following our note last week, we want to point out that BNP Paribas Real Estate Germany did in fact also released a review of the
Read MoreWith the approval of the Scheme of Arrangement in May the publication of the Amigo FYE March 22 results was of limited importance. The prime focus is
Read MoreGetting a sense of deja vu? JLR reported their Q1 sales numbers and the commentary is the same. Subdued volumes due to chip shortages and covid lockdowns in China. Q1 retail volumes were flat versus Q4 22 (Jan-Mar ’22 period) with wholesale
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
OHLA is once again on the naughty step with the Spanish competition authority (CNMC), albeit in the company of its domestic competitors. Whilst a fine is never pleasant, the health of the domestic and foreign construction market is more important for OHLA's wellbeing. Inflation and raw material availability continue to hurt construction activity, but that needs to be viewed alongside raised government spending plans and emerging political will to assist the industry in addressing costs. Whilst waiting for both shoes to drop, the challenge for management is defending cash and building up the order book.
Read MoreNatural gas suppliers have been seen as marvellously dull and ideal assets for a bond investor, driven by fees and regulated return on infrastructure. The Ukraine war has turned natural gas into a strategic industry as prices have risen. Recent economic news from Germany points to an increasingly
Read MoreBNP Paribas have published their half-year review of the German market and it’s very interesting. While large swathes of debt are trading in the 50s and equities are trading
Read MoreOrpea drew down a further €650m of their new debt as part of the rescue financing arranged earlier this year. These new facilities ensure the viability of
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
Some two weeks ago, Rolf Buch, CEO of Vonovia was seen in the China Club in Berlin. As German RE is largely carved up between the members of that club and observing the deluge of deals since then, we have the distinct impression that some deal went down in those days that broadly fits the narrative we have been discussing for some time now, even if we are not sure about this detail or if we are merely seeing ghosts - probably. But even if that’s all idle speculation, it's the absence of certain other news combined with today’s courageous press release that has us going back to the Phoenix.
Read MoreWe are primarily concerned with how Accentro proposes to manage its refinancing requirement in the next two quarters. Accentro, on the other hand, continues buying stressed assets in undisclosed cities in eastern Germany. Our analysis leaves us convinced that the
Read MorePlease find our largely unchanged analysis here.
In simple terms, someone offering to inject £200m of fresh cash behind the bonds is good news for the bonds. But is it so easy? The timing of the recent FT article is curious and had us revisit our model and in particular our assumptions on volumes and strategy. While the company itself has not yet offered any specific insight, we have more than a few ideas as to what AML may want/need to spend further money on. From the bond’s perspective, the main distinction here has to do with what is required and what is extra.
Read MorePlease find our updated analysis here.
So far so good. Advisors are in place, some Romanian operations reduce the risk from Q4, insurance companies have been reasonable (so far) and the Russian borders are still open (so far). Never mind inflation. With the bonds in the 50s and events unfolding, what are the risks and rewards now? What are the scenarios and when we put it all together, do the bonds have a place in our portfolio?
Read MoreCasino used some of its segregated Secured cash to purchase and cancel its bonds. This isn’t sensational as Casino has some headroom under its Gross Senior Secured covenant, however,
Read MoreThe impact of changes in investment budgets is starting to show up in order books. Petrobras has extended the contract with CGG for a dedicated service centre in Brazil by four years. The extension provides CGG with certainty around revenues in
Read MoreKCA reported their Q1 numbers yesterday but that doesn’t tell half of the story. Although slightly lower than our expectations, the business continues to
Read MoreWhile we are eyeing the next version of our Adler analysis, ADJ is liquidating parts of its highly sought after Berlin portfolio. The latest
Read MoreThere was some concern about debt falling due at entities below Rallye this year causing the need to dividend money from Casino and Rallye to satisfy the
Read MoreSome worrying headlines out from B&M this morning, stating sales in Q2 were down 2.2% versus last year and in their UK core store base, the revenue decline was 9.1%. However,
Read MoreWe are out this morning, but first impressions of Takko’s results are very disappointing. Relative to our expectations, Takko have underperformed by
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
We have been waiting to see the next step in Amigo’s rehabilitation since May when the company successfully obtained High court approval for its Scheme of Arrangement. The new lending products unveiled today represent the next milestone along a pathway set out by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to allow the company to resume lending. If Amigo can continue to stay that course, the opportunities for bondholders to participate in the final piece of the puzzle will come soon.
Read MoreGerman TV broadcast a 45-minute program yesterday night on Adler and its ‘dubious business’. Naturally,
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