SARRIA LIVE MODEL
SARRIA ANALYSIS
CORPORATE FILINGS
Results Call

- for speed listening, go to the settings wheel on the bottom right of the video and choose playback speed -

 

Intro, Cap and Legal Structure - 9 Apr 25

Main Drivers - 9 Apr 25

Tariffs and Expectations - 9 April 25

Brand Value - 9 Apr 25

Investment Discussion - 9 April 25

 
SARRIA News - CWT
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

The financial metrics behind the downgrade from Fitch to CCC+ match our thinking. We believe a further cash injection will be needed and

Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

The Q3 and updated FY25 numbers are a little above our recent model update. For now, we are not altering our model and still expect new cash will be

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

The downgrade to CCC+ will restrict some investors; however, the overall impact is small. Management has already highlighted that some

Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin – Hands in pockets - Model Update
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin – Hands in pockets - Model Update
Aengus McMahon

Please find our updated analysis here. 

 A profit warning from Aston Martin (AML) opened the week, and a downgrade to CCC+ from S&P closed it. The company will need £200m to £250m in

Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

The profit warning is primarily driven by lower volumes, following a weak Q2 and a significant deceleration in sales in Q3. However, the group ended Q3 with

Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

Volumes were below our expectations, and the shift away from Specials deliveries meant that gross margin fell from 39% to 28% in H1. Given the target of

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

The refusal to supply under a contract is a serious step for a supplier. However, Aston Martin is now receiving the parts, and production has

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin Lagonda - comment
Aengus McMahon

Aston has resumed exporting cars to the US, indicating that pre-tariff inventory is now exhausted. Our forecasts already have

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

Aston Martin remains vulnerable to further shocks in the US, but we expect the risks to be receding for now. The potential impact on

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

When equity has fallen so significantly, paying more cash becomes inevitable to attract the best senior executives and

Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

Q1 was as weak as the guidance given in the FY results. We are not changing our FY forecasts yet but will update after the 0830 analyst webcast. Volumes were

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Wolfgang Felix
Sarria: Tariff Terror - what it means for every name
Wolfgang Felix

As tariffs continue to influence market dynamics, we've taken a comprehensive look across our coverage to highlight the names most likely to be affected. For full transparency, we've also included those that remain unaffected—it's just as important to understand where the impact isn't being felt. 

The idea here is

Wolfgang Felix
Aston Martin - Plugging gaps - Initiation
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - Plugging gaps - Initiation
Aengus McMahon

Please find our new analysis here.

 

Aston Martin’s new models have all been very well received. However, the company is still some distance from the 12k annual production levels by

Aengus McMahon
Aengus McMahon
Aston Martin - comment
Aengus McMahon

Yew Tree is contemplating taking its stake in AML as high as 35%, which would require approval from the rest of the shareholders not to seek a

Aengus McMahon