Aston Martin’s bondholder dispute has escalated, with bondholders seeking US court discovery ahead of a UK legal challenge to
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Please find our updated analysis on Aston Martin here.
The recent refinancing has removed Aston Martin's immediate liquidity risk, but it has also fundamentally changed the credit story. The Company now has sufficient liquidity to execute its product plan over the next 18–24 months, yet our model still indicates a further funding requirement before the 2029 bond maturities. More importantly, the NewCo financing has exposed weaker creditor protections than we had previously assumed, leaving bondholders facing two key questions: can Aston Martin generate sufficient cash to grow into its capital structure, and if not, how will the next round of funding be raised?
We agree with the stance being taken by other creditors and share their concerns that the transfer of assets outside the existing bondholder
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There was some concern that the new financing announced ahead of the H1 results was a signal that the underlying numbers would
Read MoreThe Senior Secured Notes are down c.25pts, which appears to be an over-reaction. Stepping back, our model, and those of others, already pointed to
Read MoreBondholder cooperation in Aston Martin is being tested by the prospect of a punitive drop-down executed outside the group. Bonds fell further this
Read MoreThe Aston Martin situation is coming to a head. With over half of the bonds (we don't yet know how much of each series), the bondholder group
Read MoreDespite this week's sell-off, we expect Aston Martin's bonds to remain under pressure as investors focus on whether
Read MoreAston Martin has confirmed that the £50 million additional Committed Facility provided by members of the Yew Tree Consortium has satisfied all
Read MoreThe recall is minor, but the bonds may be marked a touch lower. We expect the cost to be £1.5m – £2m. Given we believe that much of the
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Ahead of our LME discussion on Aston Martin today, we note that Fitch has downgraded the AML SSNs to CCC+ as a result of the
Read MoreAppointing a new Chief Commercial Officer will help bonds today. AML has invested a significant amount of money in well-received new
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Operationally, the results were slightly below expectations. The bonds will be softer, but any drop will be reduced by the affirmation of
Read MoreA legal dispute with one of its main shareholders will result in the bonds being marked marginally lower, but we do not expect a
Read MoreAfter last week’s release, the bad news is already out there. Given the liquidity concerns, the full drawing of the RCF (an additional £60m) was
Read MoreAML will have >GBP300m of liquidity after the F1 transaction, but 2025 has ended even weaker than expected. 2026 is expected to see some
Read MoreThe financial metrics behind the downgrade from Fitch to CCC+ match our thinking. We believe a further cash injection will be needed and
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The Q3 and updated FY25 numbers are a little above our recent model update. For now, we are not altering our model and still expect new cash will be
Read MoreThe downgrade to CCC+ will restrict some investors; however, the overall impact is small. Management has already highlighted that some
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