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Intro, Legal and Cap Structure - 3 Apr 25

Industry - 3 Apr 25

Company - 3 Apr 25

Turnaround, CF and Valuation - 3 Apr 25

Investment Discussion - 3 April 25
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
Following the Q325 results we felt we should raise our projections for the company as operating expenses turned out better than expected. However,
The update this morning is incremental. We love how a year ago the Euros were downplayed as having only a minor effect on the business, but
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
The 18-Month plan underlying the recapitalisation was presented some 18 months ago, and we’ve had a look for its effects. We’d be cynical to say we didn’t find any, but it has almost entirely been absorbed by demand elasticity and labour cost headwinds, so that
S&P has been resetting their expectations for the New Normal equilibrium in UK Pub revenues, ending all allowances and adjustments that
Following Moody’s, Fitch has now also downgraded Stonegate to CCC+. The bonds yield over 10% and so reflect the ratings, but we agree with the
Moody’s downgrade to Caa1 is deserved, even if the company has already hired Alix partners and is trimming its management layers. These actions are
Press reports this morning state that Stonegate has hired Alix Partners to trim its management ranks. Numbers circulate of 150
Following our latest model update on Stonegate, here, we would like to invite you to participate in the Live discussion on the name. You will be able to ask questions anonymously. Hope to see you there!
Thursday, 3rd of April, 3pm UK | 10 am EST
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
Since management floated its performance improvement/turnaround plan, some nine months of the 18-month horizon have passed and it’s worth
Stonegate continues to do better than we thought, as L&T continues to do well. Managed Pubs and Operator Led are continuing their decline while
Stonegate reported benign figures on Friday. Our concerns that, following the restructuring, management would have some unexpected
Please find our updated analysis here.
So it’s been complicated - very much along expectations and justifying our caution about participating in this deal. The best pubs have had to be spun off into a
The equity nature of the new 2nd Lien facility does not impact creditors directly, but it underlines that getting the A&E away has
The completion of the Amend and Extend operation removes the maturity wall. Placing the £ SSNs at 10.75% will have stung for TDR, but they
Stonegate is dealing with its maturity wall and undertaking the required Amend and Extend (A&E) operation. Hold-out bondholders will get repaid at par and
Who leaked our IM? £200m happens to be the precise requirement we modelled to reach the deal. We are hearing rumours / reading
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
So the market has been open and TDR haven’t pulled the trigger. Q2 had undeniably good news on the closing of key supply contracts that should
Papers are ablaze with derision that Stonegate have admitted their difficulty in refinancing their debt stack. All that happened yesterday is that the company had to
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
The name is nearing its refinancing - the market is asking for it. Admittedly we’ve missed the trade into refinancing on this name, but we actually still feel that