- for speed listening, go to the settings wheel on the bottom right of the video and choose playback speed - after one minute video becomes high-resolution.
Intro, Capital and Legal Structure - 20 Mar 24
Industry, Economics - 20 Mar 24
Business & Transformation - 20 Mar 24
Refi Dynamics - 20 Mar 24
The Antolin Idea Pitch video is now available.
You can find the video on the Sarria website landing page as well as on Antolin's dedicated page.
We have unwound our Long/Short 30s/28s position for 61.5/63 and will be looking at potentially the inverse strategy going into the business end of
Liquidity is stronger than modelled following the Indian sale closed in January. Cash stands at €314m, although credit lines remain largely
The company reports a rise in orders and beat our expectations for the year-end, both on revenue and EBITDA. However, the latter was partially
The Apolo acquisition (agreed) of Forvia’s interiors business is insightful. Forvia (Faurecia) is struggling with its margins, like most
Moody’s has downgraded Antolin to CAA1 on raised probability of default. The outlook remains negative. The rating was preceded by a steep sell-off in
Antolin beat our expectations into year-end. Revenue was almost 10% better, and consequently, Q425 EBITDA margin improved
The family appears to be shifting a gear with the generational succession of Ernesto Antolín Calzada by his daughter Emma Antolin. He will remain in
Please find our updated analysis on Antolin here.
As it looks unlikely that the bonds can be refinanced in the market by late 2027, Antolin is building a liquidity war chest, which should
The EU is reportedly considering proposals to ease the planned 2035 ban on combustion engines. The objective is to support European OEMs and
Both bonds are up this morning by approx. 5 points on the sale of the €110m revenue Indian business for a respectable €159m to
Following yesterday’s call, we are maintaining our positioning in the name. Upon several requests from the audience, management indicated again that the
We had dropped our forecast only slightly following the poor Q2 results, in order to test our thesis with a more constructive outlook (we are
The company is playing for time. Following the publication of a Spanish press article in the summer, conversation surrounding Antolin seems to
Antolin Idea Pitch video is now live. You can find it on the Sarria website landing page and on the dedicated Antolin page.
Please find our updated model on Antolin here.
The hunt may be on for underperforming European auto suppliers, and Antolin is a well-known case, but this name seems to have taken a turn for the worse in
We were discussing with some of you that the bonds would drop a little this morning - mostly because there is a continued search for underperforming automotive suppliers on the back of weak volumes in Q2 - in turn driven by steep tariffs, flat macro growth and
The new €150m 2032 ICO-backed loan (funding available to companies affected by US tariffs) is great news. The company had been alluding to negotiations, but we
Please find our updated analysis of Antolin here.
While risks in the short term are skewed to the downside, the bonds are difficult to short into a H225 picture that has been obscured by recent
The company performed better than model in Q1. Revenues were lower, but management had been renegotiating supply contracts, which is beginning to
We shorted Antolin10 3/8s at 82 in March, but are now buying back the position at 70 as we are getting carried out. The bonds had reached the
The financials were very much on target in Q4, but they were already guided and won’t be the focus of today’s call. The presentation includes only a
As tariffs continue to influence market dynamics, we've taken a comprehensive look across our coverage to highlight the names most likely to be affected. For full transparency, we've also included those that remain unaffected—it's just as important to understand where the impact isn't being felt.
The idea here is
Antolin Idea Pitch video is now live. You can find it on the Sarria website landing page and on the dedicated Antolin page.
We took that short just in time. It turns out, however, that we don’t have to wait for Q1 to look forward to covenant discussions. We hear that not
Please find our only slightly updated analysis here.
We have been critical of Antolin for a while. But as covenants, creditors and rating agencies are set to define the next months for the auto supplier, we think that a breach
A little More revenue, significantly lower EBITDA and more CapEx are not boding well for the Autosupplier as we go into the first round of tariff discussions on Auto imports to
In what could be a cautionary note for other auto suppliers, Schaeffler issued a profit warning this morning reducing its EBIT margin from a market consensus of
Please find our all-new analysis of Antolin here.
We have been reviewing our automotive names side-by-side, so as to create a bit of an industry view and ensure we view each bottom-up name in a
In line with the downturn in the auto parts industry, the Spanish auto parts group reported Q3 results that were reflective of the industry. Revenues declined by