We evaluate the restructuring plan from Accentro, its likelihood of success and how this should impact our investment stance. After gauging the probability of implementing the plan, we calculate the value of the various components of the restructured debt and their contribution to SUN's recoveries. Executing the plan will have challenges, so we consider those potential barriers and their impact on returns.
We analyse the restructuring proposal from Ardagh to assess whether a consensual or court process will be needed; what the impact on recoveries is; where the instruments should trade; and how that impacts our investment stance. Having just closed a very successful trade in the Ardagh cap stack recently, we want to grab new opportunities arising from the restructuring.
Ardagh is on the cusp of announcing its restructuring, so we revisit our position in the SUNs. We calculate fair value for the SUNs and assess how the payments to Ardagh Group shareholders could impact this estimate. We then delve into the components of the eventual recovery for SUN's holders, how these valuations may change, and what the immediate pricing impact of the restructuring will be.
Having assessed the credit metrics and the pricing of our position in the CPI Perpetual securities, we have taken profit of what has been a 37% trade. Going forward, our analysis builds on the current valuation environment and the maturity profile of CPI, while also considering how management strategy may impact risk and return.
We assess what the Morrisons refinance operation means for our positions in the debt stack, evaluate the impact on the maturity profile and determine the next steps that need to be taken. Based on our DCF calculation and our model, we gauge which refinancing option Morrisons will choose for the Remaining SUNs, and when the refinance is likely to happen.