Steinhoff - Retaining Position

Please find our updated analysis and entity priority model here.

We retain our position unchanged but have made further updates to the model to reflect forthcoming changes as

Wolfgang Felix29 October 2020STEINHOFF

Casino - Prior to numbers is the differential between Quantum secured bonds and Unsecured March 2024 too much

Please find our updated model here.

We are considering taking a long position in the

Tomás Mannion29 October 2020CASINO

RAC - Dutch tender for B notes

We maintain our long position in RAC B notes. This Dutch tender is positive for the credit and further demonstrates the likely early call of the balance of B notes in July 2021 at

Tomás Mannion28 October 2020RAC

KME – new position on the bonds following the Q2 20 results call

Please find our updated analysis on KME here.

Based on the trading levels during the lows of the pandemic, we would not expect the bonds to dip below

Juliano Torii28 October 2020KME

KME – comments on the Q2 20 results call

While the Q2 20 numbers reflect the continued resiliency of the company into the Q4 19 and Q1 20 pre coronavirus slowdown, the full impact of the coronavirus will

Juliano Torii28 October 2020KME

Codere - Follow up with management

Please find our updated Codere model here.

We had a long conversation with Codere management yesterday. Details of some of the adjustments are outlined below, but in summary, although we have reduced the

Tomás Mannion27 October 2020CODERE

Rotating the book again

We are rotating out of a number of names that have either fulfilled their investment thesis or have failed to do so or have otherwise traded up significantly post March and therefore hold more beta than alpha now:

Wolfgang Felix27 October 2020GENERAL, ADIENT, SOUTHERN WATER, ANTOLIN, BOPARAN

AA Another month, another extension

Our analysis on the AA remains unchanged here.

Given the evident stability of the business, even if the bid fails we would expect limited downside into the mid 80s. Also, the concentrated shareholder base may

Tomás Mannion27 October 2020AA

Europcar - Leverage, Fresh Cash, Outlook, Valuation

Wolfgang Felix26 October 2020EUROPCAR

CMA CGM – update following new 2026 bond deal and Maersk/Hapag Lloyd guidance upgrade

We have updated our projections and comments to reflect the information we learned from the CMA CGM bond roadshow, and the Maersk/Hapag Lloyd guidance upgrade. We also incorporate the new

Juliano Torii22 October 2020CMA CGM

HEMA - Nothing gained, nothing lost

lease refer to our unchanged analysis here.
At E470m EV, the proposed transaction is certainly good news for HEMA, but would take place just below our base case. We admittedly bought into the name late, but we had been

Wolfgang Felix21 October 2020HEMA

Lowell - Supportive

We are delighted to see the new approach and substantially increased equity cheque. Over the past two years, we have been critical of the company and more recently supportive, as you may know.

In past weeks we had been

Wolfgang Felix21 October 2020LOWELL

Pizza Express - Lock-down Valuation

Reference to updated analysis here.

Pizza Express are moving ahead with a Part 26A Plan to be heard tomorrow morning at 11 am.

The plan is likely to be successful and should

Wolfgang Felix20 October 2020PIZZA EXPRESS

Europcar - update to game theory

M. Bourboulougx has been appointed and while advisors are signing NDAs in expectation of the IBR from 8Advisory this morning, some further thoughts on game theory and positioning below:

Holdco Notes - large but vulnerable:

Wolfgang Felix20 October 2020EUROPCAR

INTU updates - 3.5 months later and still no visibility

We have updated INTU Trafford Centre here, INTU SGS here and INTU Metrocentre here.

INTU Group went into administration 26th June 2020, but 3 1/2 months later there is still very

Tomás Mannion16 October 2020INTU

Lowell - RCF paid down

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Lowell’s preliminary results this morning appear positive, but do not contain enough detail to allow any more robust conclusions.

The repayment of the RCF is

Wolfgang Felix15 October 2020LOWELL

CMA CGM – comments on Hapag Lloyd’s preliminary figures and guidance upgrade

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Coming a few days after Maersk’s guidance upgrade, Hapag Lloyd’s results and guidance should lend

Juliano Torii15 October 2020CMA CGM

CMA CGM – comments on roadshow call and Maersk guidance upgrade

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

The lower than last time excess container shipping capacity was, of course, the centrepiece of our positioning in April and so the issuance of a new bond to take out the 21s comes at no surprise.

The transaction:

Juliano Torii13 October 2020CMA CGM

CMA CGM – comments on new 2026 EUR bond deal

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

According to market sources, CMA CGM is planning to issue a EUR525m 2026 bond deal. This follows a press release from this morning notifying investors

Juliano Torii12 October 2020CMA CGM

Matalan - Strong. Challenged, but strong.

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Sales came in significantly ahead of our expectations, as the company liquidated its SS stock successfully through August. As a result we

Wolfgang Felix12 October 2020MATALAN