SARRIA - Credit Opportunities

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Tullow - Rationale for divestment points to use of proceeds.

Please find our Tullow model here.

Tullow Oil announced last night the sale of two non-operated assets in West Africa (Equatorial Guinea and Ghana) for an initial consideration of $135m plus contingency payments of up to $45m, subject to production levels and Oil price assumptions. This

Tomás Mannion10 February 2021TULLOW

KME - Extension of the EUR395m and EUR150m facilities.

lease find our unchanged analysis here.

KME announced overnight the one-year extension of the EUR395m inventory-backed facility, and the EUR150m Factofrance factoring facility. The

Juliano Torii10 February 2021KME

Tullow Oil - further asset sales

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Tullow have released a statement outlining two asset sales, both to Panoro (a small-cap Norwegian listed Oil Company). It is structured as two separate asset sales, one of which will

Tomás Mannion9 February 2021TULLOW

Adient – strong but constraint

Please find our unchanged analysis on Adient here.

The latest results clearly show the company’s turnaround is on track. We see the SSNs, in which

Juliano Torii9 February 2021ADIENT

Intralot - international assets

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The timing is interesting. If your aim were to load as many 24s as possible into the US subsidiary’s equity, then why

Wolfgang Felix8 February 2021INTRALOT

Vallourec - Restructuring proposal, but where is the cash generation?

Please find our updated analysis on Vallourec here.

We have outlined the proposed deal with various recovery values depending on EV multiples. We are still not

Tomás Mannion8 February 2021VALLOUREC

Naviera Armas - staying the course

Please find attached our new model on Naviera Armas here.

Given the successful consent to the restructuring, we are holding on to

Wolfgang Felix8 February 2021NAVIERA

Arrow/Lowell - valuation

TDR have been after Arrow since early December and the latest hike in offer price almost. The latest iteration now values the company £100m or 6% higher than the first bid at nearly £1.8bn EV - including portfolio financing. To explain four iterations of bids to arrive at this point we need to

Wolfgang Felix8 February 2021LOWELL, ARROW

Atalian – suspending position on lack of near-term catalyst

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

While the fundamental issues around Atalian’s business model has remained unchanged since the start of our position on 2 July 2020, we see

Juliano Torii5 February 2021ATALIAN

Europcar - time to reassess

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

As widely anticipated, the Paris Commercial Court has approved the Europcar SFA, which in any event was mostly consensual. Subject to today’s recognition hearing in the US this plan will go ahead. The prospectae for the new instruments

Wolfgang Felix4 February 2021EUROPCAR

Intralot - What the 83% tell us

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

Intralot 21s locked up with only 82.62%, which is largely made up of the two principal holders - Oakhill and Beach Point. Interesting is the lack of further consent to the proposal. The “blocking stake” of

Wolfgang Felix2 February 2021INTRALOT

Tullow Oil - Our view on relative value of three bonds

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

The weakness in Tullow Oil bonds on Friday/today was the topic of conversation this morning. Weakness across the board can be explained by

Tomás Mannion1 February 2021TULLOW

Modulaire (Algeco) – model update and comments

Please refer to our updated analysis here.

We have upgraded our model to reflect a better bottom-up granularity of revenues and improved working capital estimates. We have also

Juliano Torii29 January 2021ALGECO

KME – disposal reports and valuation coverage

Please find our unchanged recent analysis on KME here.

Heightened speculation around a potential disposal of parts of the Special products division, triggered by a Reorg article, has led to a further appreciation of the KME bonds.

This supports our thesis that

Juliano Torii29 January 2021KME

Douglas - They said "refinance" and "comfortably"

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.

We are holding on to our 6% of NAV position in the Subs as Douglas management expect to "refinance … comfortably”. Creditors should expect the company to approach them in due course.

Wolfgang Felix28 January 2021DOUGLAS

Tullow Oil - disappointing Production Guidance will hinder negotiations

We have updated our model slightly on the back of the trading statement this morning, please find here.

The extension by one month of the RBL redetermination date is a little surprising and we would have expected this to be in place. At this point, however,

Tomás Mannion27 January 2021TULLOW

Steinhoff - fundamentals, settlement and positioning

Please refer to our unchanged analysis here.
As consumers have to tighten belts, where can they go? Steinhoff are (operationally) on fire - in Africa, in Europe and in the US. Clearly, the currency movements have been

Wolfgang Felix27 January 2021STEINHOFF

Casino - fewer moving parts

We have updated our model here.

Following the refinancing in December, the question remains: Where next? Over the last two years, the moving parts of the company and its value pockets have become increasingly well defined. This leaves the long end of the curve increasingly dependent on

Tomás Mannion26 January 2021CASINO, RALLYE

Rallye - tendering, replication and optionality

Please find our all new model on Rallye here.

Rallye are opportunistically tendering for a portion of the unsecured Rallye debt, via a modified Dutch Auction, between 12.5% and 20% with proceeds of a new Fimalac financing of

Tomás Mannion26 January 2021CASINO, RALLYE

Matalan - Lockdowns, liquidity and refinancing

Please find our updated analysis on Matalan here.

The all-new model rolls forward the various moving elements to estimate liquidity through the current lock-down scenario and allows for adding further lockdowns, as is likely. It’s not based on the usual

Wolfgang Felix26 January 2021MATALAN