Please find our unchanged analysis here.
There was a moment during the pandemic, where Stena’s fine print and legal structure had come into view. Oil had slumped and the virus was about. Never again would we need those drillships. Ferries were being replaced with Zoom. Bulk and LNG were strong, but
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
Steinhoff continues to do very well and of course the IPO of Mattress Firm should provide the next event for investors. With concerns about the web of intercompany relationships somewhat giving way to a broader discussion, however, about what to do with the
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis here.
Jaguar LandRover reported their Q4 and FY22 numbers yesterday with no surprises. Jaguar LandRover management has a good reputation for guiding the market and with its significant liquidity, there are no short term concerns for JLR. Our focus isn’t on the
Read MoreAmigo creditors yesterday acted as had been anticipated and voted overwhelmingly in their own best interest. The New Business Scheme (Amigo 2.0) will now go before the High Court on 23/24 May in a Sanctioning hearing. Our expectation is that
Read MoreIt’s been widely anticipated that OHLA would continue to see its order book development mirror the progress it has made since the completion of its restructuring program. At the quarter-end, it was 2.8% up on Q121 at €5.98bn. The return to
Read MoreKCA Deutag published their FY21 Annual Report broadly in line with our expectations, but with no call nor presentation until the end of May there is very little to update. The outlook remains positive but with c.25% of the business in Russia there is some geopolitical uncertainty. Pre Ukraine war, there was a strong expectation of a refinancing of the $500m 9.875% 2025 bonds given their
Read MoreThe German Bundestag is expecting Bafin President Mark Branson to present their findings on Adler next week. The session will be confidential. Parliamentary Finance Secretary Katya Hessel is under pressure to bring some light into the situation. Bafin have been probing
Read MoreThe pathway to restructuring Amigo and the launch of Amigo 2.0 reaches another milestone tomorrow (12 May). Our core thesis remains the creditors will approve Amigo 2.0 at the
Read MoreWe agree with much of what Fitch had to say about KME in its ratings change for the SSNs. Whilst the repayment of €190m of the €300m bond was positive for bondholders, there are still liquidity risks. The remaining €110m bond matures in February 2023 and the
Read MorePlease find our further updated analysis here.
Today’s release by Adler deserves the rare praise of answering more questions than it raises. It has certainly helped shape our thinking a little bit further. Having reshuffled some of the asset sales in our analysis, we come to three conclusions,
Read MoreFootfall on the UK high street has reached its highest level since pre-Covid, down only 10% in early May versus comparable week in 2019. The good weather and weak comparison has helped reduce the differential, with high street and shopping centres all-seeing
Read MoreSo on to the next stage. The Paris Commercial Court has approved Rallye’s unsecured debt tender with the settlement agreed for May 16th. It was deemed a mere formality and confirms the reduction of €242m of unsecured debt. This transaction has increased Rallye’s secured debt to
Read MorePlease find our updated analysis here.
While we are not finished incorporating all the news we’ve had over the last couple of weeks, we have been focussing on Adler’s liquidity for the coming quarters under various scenarios, as well as on the assets on whose sale Adler are relying. Ahead of tomorrow’s release of “clarification” of some of the main points in the presentation, however, we feel
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis on Tullow here.
At the current yields 11% and 16% for the Senior Secured and Senior Notes respectively, Tullow deserves a further look. Without dismissing the importance of oil price on Tullow’s financials, we have always maintained that production levels is the main risk for Tullow. Because
Read MoreGPA is a business in transition as they proceed with the closure and sale of the hypermarket format and resize the entire business. The Exito business continues to perform strongly. We remain of the view that the
Read MoreOn topline revenue, SGL Carbon experienced growth across all its business segments, notably in the automotive and semiconductor segments and despite the conflict in Ukraine, SGL Carbon remains
Read MoreAdler made an effort to present itself openly with a 2h Q&A today. The presentation reveals a more progressed KKR transaction than previously feared. Although we
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis of Adler here.
“Thief, thief!” it echoed throughout the town square when a watchful citizen had noticed a stranger inside the bank. The stranger, he claimed, was one of its own shareholders, who had no business in the vault. The bank called in the detective and yes, the shareholder had indeed been in the
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