Boparan - comment

The recent recall of cooked poultry in France does not impact Boparan, risk would come from volume falls if the issue in France is much more widespread than thought. Possible but

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Aengus McMahonBOPARAN
Nidda – Time out.

Please find our updated analysis here.

Pushing maturities out to September 2026 gives Nidda time to consider an IPO in 2024 without facing a maturity hurdle. The exchange offer completed yesterday is

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Aengus McMahonNIDDA
Orpea - reality dawns

Please find our unchanged analysis on Orpea here.

The reality of the situation is dawning on investors as either an equity injection (via debt for equity swap, aka Vallourec) or full-blown Sauvegarde, appears the only

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Tomás MannionORPEA
Ocado - comment

he proposed acquisition of Alberstons by Kroger is positive news for Ocado, but additional orders will emerge only in the long term and the debt-financed nature of the deal does increase the risk of financial pressure on

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Aengus McMahonOCADO
TAP - comment

Portugal’s Minister of Infrastructure, Pedro Nuno Santos, has stated that in order to remain viable in the long-term, TAP needs to be combined with a large aviation group and

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Wolfgang FelixTAP
Takko - Winter is coming

Please find our updated analysis of Takko here.

We've been here before. In 2004, following the German Labour Market Reform, sales dropped, trade insurers walked out and the LCs had to be arranged with haste. Shortly after a precarious refinancing led by Simon Mansfield's ESSG of GS and involving

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Wolfgang FelixTAKKO
Amigo - comment

The FCA’s approval of a limited return to lending was expected given the book-building exercise for Amigo’s equity raise has begun. Amigo’s expectations for originations in

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Aengus McMahonAMIGO
United Group - Keeping ahead.

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

United Group’s statement yesterday has set the clock ticking on the partial sale of its towers business. Proceeds would be used to part-fund the €1.1bn of 2024/25 maturities. These bonds currently yield 9% - 10%. In our recent analysis of United Group

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Aengus McMahonUNITED
Amigo Loans - Right to participate.

Please find our slightly modified analysis here.

Although participating would be profitable we will not take part in the upcoming equity raise from Amigo. We will hold on to our bonds and without any equity kicker, our expected 12-month return for our bondholding is 14%. We expect the bonds will be

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Aengus McMahonAMIGO