JLR continue to have supply issues and have decided to cut production in two of their factories for calendar Q123. Production at Solihull (where Range Rover Velar and Jaguar F-Pace are manufactured) will be
Read MoreBack-book volatility is not something that is usually on open display, as most debt collectors do not mark to market. So regardless of how idiosyncratic management will
Read MoreAbsence of evidence is not evidence of absence… Or so it has been going with the magic injection of equity into LBOs and leveraged refinancings throughout the pandemic. I know I’m naïve. So I only first observed this phenomenon on Lowell in 2020. We were proposing a refinancing transaction that would
Read MoreThe return of former Pepco CEO Andy Bond is reassuring. We had been surprised at his departure in March and even though the reason was billed as
Read MoreKCA reported Q3 numbers yesterday and away from the actual historics, KCA provided an update on both Russia and the integration of the Saipem
Read MoreIn an attempt to draw a line under the previous regime and allegations of malpractice, Orpea has decided it will rely on the €56m claimed in public grants for
Read MoreDespite the floods, Pepkor's FY22 financials through September were expected to look good compared to 2021 with riots and lockdowns. The South African conglomerate continues to
Read MoreIn response to equity sell-side downgrades, Lawrence Stroll has demonstrated his belief in the Aston Martin story by increasing his stake in Aston Martin from 24.7% to 26%. Our analysis makes us comfortable that the value of the marque is
Read MorePlease find our updated model here.
The equity market reaction to this morning’s Q3 financials is negative but credit inventors should look past that and focus on the continued momentum in FCF before Working Capital and the lowering restructuring charges. We see the increasing inventory and increasing investment in Working Capital as an overall positive as the business continues to see positive momentum in its operations. We have not adjusted our projections this morning, although mid point of Company guidance is slightly higher than we anticipate. We are happy to maintain our position.
Read MorePlease find our unchanged analysis of Adler here.
Back in summer, we had been planning to review our positioning in October. It’s November now and while timing was a month off, most people's crystal balls have been accurate: German RE remains illiquid and we have to fix the balance sheet. We recall
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Please find the initiation of Stonegate Pub Company here.
At 12% - 13%, we find the yield interesting for sterling-secured paper with a premium over the Punch bonds reflecting the higher LTV at Stonegate. A key management strategy is converting some of the tenanted estate into Managed/Operator Partner estate where
Yesterday, Tullow released a trading statement & operational update, but away from the obvious it included no meaningful new information. The Capital Markets Update is
Read MoreJLR has announced this morning that Thierry Bolloré, CEO, has resigned. This is reported as for personal reasons, but we are surprised by the
Read MoreUpfield released their Q3 trading statement, prior to their call later today (2pm UK time). Strong set of numbers with Gross Profit increasing to
Read MoreQ322 results were better than our model due to top-line growth above the market (FX Adjusted). Gross margin improvement of 100bp was aided by a
Read MoreWe understand the market focus on the M&S JV given the International Logistics business is some years away from being cash generative. However, investing in the International division is why Ocado has over £900m of cash on its balance sheet. Cash flow to Ocado out of the JV is minimal and distorts the accounting picture. The sooner M&S exercises its control option and the
Read MoreJeffries' downgrading of Aston Martin’s equity is not a surprise; we have many of the same conclusions regarding equity. We remain more comfortable with the debt. Post the
Read MoreRumours are emerging that Adler are commencing discussions with a selection of bondholders to enter into new commitments - presumably on some form of super sr. basis or via a
Read MorePepco have been elevated into the MSCI Poland index, which has produced a 13% jump today on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This may be only temporary and
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