Boparan – The long game.

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

The sale of the bakery business reinforces our bias towards taking a long position in the Boparan SSNs. Our current exposure, through selling 1-year protection matures this month. We are not in a rush to commit before the Q1 results, but assuming there are no

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Aengus McMahonBOPARAN
Tullow - comment

Moody’s have downgraded Tullow Oil’s bond ratings, mainly on the back of the downgrade of Ghana’s long term issuer rating from Caa2 to Ca. This was expected due to 70%+ of

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Tomás MannionTULLOW
Atalian - comment

The delay in completing the sale of the business to CD&R concerns us and indicates that CD&R is blanching at the price. The situation is binary: 1) The Julian family successfully negotiates to get the deal back on track, and the bonds return to par or 2) the deal fails and

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Aengus McMahonATALIAN
CMA CGM - comment

Management comments on the 22Q3 results showed the emerging strains for container rates. There is no reason for panic yet, but 2023 will be a tough year for the industry. In Q3, despite a sequential rise in volumes, shipping revenue fell nearly 2% as

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Aengus McMahonCMA CGM
Intrum - comment

After the call, the Intrum write-down explanation still makes no sense to us. The discount at which Carval have sold their stake in the Italian SPV amounts to 90% on the underlying assets from their 2018 valuation (which will have been high in the first place). We understand that

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Wolfgang FelixINTRUM