Punch - 2024 and beyond

Please find our updated analysis of Punch Taverns here.

All good things must come to an end. In the case of Punch Taverns though we’ve missed it. The bonds always traded too tight for us and the opportunity is

Wolfgang Felix18 March 2024PUNCH

SBB - comment

Another tender offer from SBB. We doubt this will be any more successful than the

Aengus McMahon18 March 2024SBB

Thames Water - comment

Certain lenders to Kemble, atop of Thames Water, have engaged E&Y ahead of next month’s maturities of £190m. For more information and

Wolfgang Felix18 March 2024THAMES WATER

Heimstaden AB - comment

The announcement at Heimstaden AB is a non-event. It is replicating the management team at Heimstaden Bostad. This is in line with previous

Tomás Mannion18 March 2024HEIMSTADEN

Intrum - comment

Again, it’s a question of shooting before asking. We have traded out of our 28s at 52 today and bought 25s instead at 60c/€. In the process, we have also

Wolfgang Felix15 March 2024INTRUM

Selecta - comment

"Let It Bloom” was effectively written all over the presentation yesterday. Management currently see no cloud on the horizon and with the heavy lifting

Wolfgang Felix15 March 2024SELECTA

Ardagh Group - comment

Political momentum is growing in South Africa to minimise the impact of gas price rises and loss of domestic supply after 2026. Political action is

Aengus McMahon15 March 2024ARDAGH

Iceland - Boring as usual.

Please find our updated analysis of Iceland post its Q3 numbers here.

This update is a little delayed as we awaited some confirmation on differences between FRS102 and the now new accounting standard IFRS. The answer is

Tomás Mannion15 March 2024ICELAND

Intrum - comment

Intrum have appointed Houlihan and Milbank to “evaluate improvements of its debt capital structure”. Perhaps we are wrong to assume the 24s

Wolfgang Felix14 March 2024INTRUM

KCA Deutag - comment

KCA announced this morning new contracts with Equinor in the North Sea totalling $450m, including the extension of contracts on 5 rigs and winning two

Tomás Mannion14 March 2024KCA Deutag

Aston Martin - comment

The coupon for AML’s refinance will irritate Lawrence Stroll, but getting the deal away successfully allows management to focus on

Aengus McMahon14 March 2024ASTON MARTIN

AroundTown - comment

AroundTown are due to report their FY23 on the 27th March. Its 60% owned subsidiary, Grand City Properties reported its FY23 numbers. GCP announced

Tomás Mannion14 March 2024AROUNDTOWN

Altice (SFR) France - comment

Altice France are due to report their numbers next Wednesday, but this morning, their competitor, Iliad reported strong results, specifically in France. Iliad reported

Tomás Mannion14 March 2024ALTICE SFR

Altice International - comment

We are awaiting full numbers, but Altice International released their preliminary numbers and call yesterday. With the general consensus that Altice International will

Tomás Mannion14 March 2024ALTICE INTERNATIONAL

VMED O2 - comment

VMED O2 hasn’t yet launched new services on its upgraded Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) network upgrades. Only £100m of what we estimate at £1.7bn in

Aengus McMahon13 March 2024VMEDO2

Selecta - Outlook - Positioning

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

We have been meaning to put this trade on for a while. One of you had the idea and we like it, but we weren’t going to spill the beans before that fund had

Wolfgang Felix12 March 2024SELECTA

Douglas - comment

It’s finally happening. First trading day is set for Thursday next week. Price range will be €26-30/share for up to 32.7m (+1.9m management) shares to float up to

Wolfgang Felix12 March 2024DOUGLAS

Aston Martin - comment

With coupon guided at 10%+ on the $, the fall in cash interest from the refinancing will be modest. The company is expecting to be free cash flow

Aengus McMahon12 March 2024ASTON MARTIN

Aston Martin - comment

We closed our position and put the name on the shelf earlier this month. The refinance is happening a little quicker

Aengus McMahon11 March 2024AUTOMOTIVE

Adler - comment

There was an odd request to the Derivatives C'ittee earlier this week about whether ARE’s “sex change” from AG to GmbH constituted that it’s now a